Succeed where Michel Barnier failed. That is the challenge of the new French Prime Minister, François Bayrou, who must reach agreements in a deeply divided National Assembly to avoid an absolute majority vote on a possible motion of censure – like the one that overthrew Barnier – and to achieve the approval of new legislation, in particular texts relating to budgets.
What is Bayrou’s plan?
Bayrou will have, in principle, the support of the 163 deputies of the centrist coalition: the 36 MoDem deputies, the 93 of Renaissance (Emmanuel Macron’s party) and the 34 of the Horizons group. And in his first statements he has implied that he will try to convince the parliamentary groups of three left-wing parties – socialists, environmentalists and communists – not to bring down his government.
A change in strategy with respect to Michel Barnier, who during his brief mandate as head of Government focused on ensuring Marine Le Pen’s abstention in the event of censure, something that he ultimately did not achieve.
Shortly after the legislative elections last July that resulted in a National Assembly fragmented into three large blocks (left, center and extreme right), Bayrou himself had predicted that the first head of government of the new legislature would be quickly censured, given the impossibility to reach agreements between parliamentary groups.
But he added that it would be difficult to bring down the second, due to pressure from public opinion. In a newspaper interview The Figaro This summer he assured that “the only possible path – and the one that will prevail – is not a government from one side that opposes another, but rather a united team to address the very serious problems that our country, the world and the planet face. ”.
His first statements as prime minister this Friday were along the same lines. Minutes after learning of his appointment, he stated that right now “everyone is aware of the difficulty of the task. Everyone says we have to find a way to unite people instead of dividing them. Reconciliation is necessary.”
Before the appointment of François Bayrou was made public, this week Emmanuel Macron had invited the main leaders of the parties represented in the Assembly – except France Insoumise and the extreme right – to a meeting at the Elysée. Among the options evoked in the quote, the possibility of a government that would bring together parties from the left, center and right, an option that in the current context seems distant.
The construction of a “non-censorship pact” seems more likely, a minimum agreement with formations of different tendencies that will be in the opposition, but that commit to not bringing down the new Executive.
What support can the new prime minister count on?
For the moment, the socialists have opened the door to not censure François Bayrou and have asked him in exchange to renounce the use of article 49.3, designed to approve laws without a vote of parliament. At the same time, the socialists ruled out participation in the Government and assured that “they will remain in the opposition.”
Likewise, Marine Tondelier, national secretary of The Ecologists, stated that her group “will be attentive to see if the prime minister commits not to use 49.3” and “Mr. Bayrou seemed open to it.” [en la reunión]so we’ll see what he does.”
On the other hand, on Friday there was still uncertainty about the position of the 47 right-wing parliamentarians of the Republican party, who had supported Barnier as a member of his party. For now, the leader of the LR parliamentary group, Laurent Wauquiez, has stated that they will wait to know the details of Bayrou’s “project” to rule on a possible entry into the Government.
In any case, it seems unlikely that they will vote in favor of censure against the next Executive. “We have always said we would not block. What counts is the Government’s roadmap,” he declared.
Could there be another motion of censure?
Although his party has been excluded from this round of negotiations, Jordan Bardella, President of the far-right National Rally, declared that “there will be no a priori censorship” of the next government. “Our red lines remain,” he added. “No change in the reimbursement of medicines, no weakening of the economic and social situation of pensioners.”
As they had already announced in recent days, before the name of the new prime minister was known, France Insoumise will present a motion of censure against François Bayrou. “One more candidacy to give air to Emmanuel Macron. The country has two clear options: continuity of the disastrous policies with François Bayrou or breakup,” wrote the president of the parliamentary group Mathilde Panot in X.
On the other hand, the new prime minister is still waiting for a court decision on the case against him regarding the use of funds from MoDem assistants in the European Parliament to improperly finance the party (a case similar to the one he faces these weeks Marine Le Pen). In February, a Paris court considered that there was insufficient evidence to prove his involvement in the system, in a case in which 11 members of his party were convicted. A date for an appeal trial has not yet been set, after the prosecutor appealed Bayrou’s acquittal.
Will you be able to approve the budgets?
Although he starts in better conditions than his predecessor, in the current state of French politics and given the deterioration of public debt, the task facing François Bayrou seems extremely difficult. It must carry out budgets that have the approval of political parties with very different ideologies.
To begin with, the different parties have opposing views on how to stop the growth of debt. Until now, Macronist deputies have opposed any type of tax increase, while progressives do not want cuts that deteriorate public services and demand that new taxes be levied on the highest incomes and multinationals.
In this sense, Bayrou’s party has distinguished itself on several occasions from its Macronist allies by voting in favor of several attempts to increase taxes on super-dividends of large companies.
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