A week after the fall of Michel Barnier, forced to resign by a motion of censure voted by a majority of the National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron announced the appointment of the centrist prime minister François Bayrou, president of the MoDem party, who in turn, it is part of the macronist parliamentary coalition Ensemble.
Bayrou has a long political career in France, becoming a presidential candidate on several occasions. His career has been within centrist parties such as the MoDem that he represents today. Despite not belonging to Macron’s party, he has been a key political support in the career of the president of the republic. In recent years he has been an advisor to the Elysée, but previously he held positions such as the Mayor of Pau or different ministries with three presidents: Mitterrand, Chirac and Macron.
In the days following the censure against Barnier, the French head of state (to whom the Constitution grants the power to appoint the head of government without specifying conditions or deadlines) had announced a “change of method” regarding conversations with the forces policies that he carried out last summer and prior to the appointment of the former Brexit negotiator.
So Macron had waited two months since the legislative elections of July 7 to end up opting for the conservative Barnier, a politician who did not belong to the president’s party, but who ensured a certain ideological continuity.
However, the parliamentary support of the center-right deputies for Barnier—backed by the 163 centrist deputies and the 47 of the Republicans party—was insufficient to carry out budgets against the New Popular Front (192 deputies) and the extreme right. (140), who voted together on last week’s motion of censure.
Like his predecessor, the new prime minister finds himself in a very fragile situation in the face of a divided Assembly in which it is difficult to secure lasting support. However, this “new method” defended by Macron opens the possibility of reaching a minimum agreement in the coming weeks that ensures a certain stability.
In this sense, on Tuesday, in the winter garden of the Elysee Palace, the president invited representatives of the majority of French political forces to discuss for almost three hours behind closed doors in an attempt to find an agreed solution to the blockade caused by the fall of the Barnier Government.
The meeting was attended by the national secretary of the Ecologists, Marine Tondelier, the first secretary of the Socialist Party (PS), Olivier Faure, the national secretary of the French Communist Party (PCF), Fabien Roussel, the general secretary of Renaissance, Gabriel Attal, the president of MoDem, François Bayrou, the president of the Horizons party, Édouard Philippe and the president of the parliamentary group of The Republicans, Laurent Wauquiez.
Without LFI or the extreme right
There were no representatives of the extreme right at the meeting, excluded from this round of negotiations, nor of France Insoumise, which was not invited after its leaders declined this week to take part in the talks. “There cannot be any discussion with the head of state other than the appointment of a government of the New Popular Front (NFP),” its coordinator, Manuel Bompard, stated then.
The presence of the rest of the leaders of the progressive coalition and the absence of LFI illustrates the increasingly deep differences in position in the NFP. Socialists, environmentalists and communists have changed the discourse compared to last summer, when the four parties closed ranks with the program and the common candidate, Lucie Castets.
“Non-censorship” pact
According to the newspaper Le Parisienthe president affirmed in this meeting his desire not to dissolve the National Assembly again during the remainder of his mandate, which ends in 2027. A wish and not a commitment, the Elysée clarified a little later. By removing the possibility of legislative elections (an event in which alliances between parties are particularly important), Macron hopes to give an additional argument to socialists, communists and environmentalists to break with LFI and agree to negotiate with the new head of Government.
At the end of the meeting, the leaders of the different parties explained that Emmanuel Macron evoked three possible options to ensure the stability of the new head of Government: a “government pact” similar to the one that the conservative Barnier signed with the centrists, to which they would add new parties willing to participate in the Executive; a “legislative pact” to move the budgets forward and, perhaps, a selection of consensus bills with the support of several parties, although without participation in the Government; and, finally, a “non-censorship pact”, that is, a minimum agreement with parties that will be in the opposition but that undertake not to bring down the new Executive.
The majority of leaders present seem to have discarded the first two and privileged the “non-censorship” option. “After this meeting there will be no more talk about a possible government contract with people with whom we do not share the same values,” summarized the leader of the conservatives, Laurent Wauquiez, upon leaving the Elysee Palace.
This option of the “non-censorship” agreement would mean a balance pact with mutual concessions between the executive and legislative powers: the Government would renounce using article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows certain budget texts to be approved without going through a vote in the Assembly. In exchange, a majority of deputies would undertake not to vote for censure again. However, in the current state of French politics and given the deterioration of the situation of public finances, the preparation of budgets that have the approval of political parties of very different ideologies seems extremely difficult.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday morning the special bill to “guarantee the continuity of national life” was presented to the Council of Ministers (with the Government in office), a legislative text aimed at ensuring the functioning of the State at the same time. He hopes that the new Executive can present new budgets to the Assembly. This special law must be examined on Monday, December 16 in the National Assembly and later on December 18 in the Senate.
Other names
Throughout the day several possible candidates circulated in the media. The name of the former socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, already mentioned insistently this summer, was once again among the favorites throughout Thursday. The name of Roland Lescure, a member of Macron’s party since 2017, from the Socialist Party, was also considered.
Another of the possible candidates mentioned by the French press, former Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed on Friday to the Breton weekly Le Penthièvre that he had rejected the position. “They offered it to me. But I rejected it. In two and a half years, I will be 80 years old, it wouldn’t be serious,” he explained.
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