We are immersed as humanity in a profound process of change of times. This means that we have entered a new historical phase that will determine not only geopolitics and international relations, but also the ways of governing within countries, of socializing, and even of producing, consuming, and thinking. This world will even transform human consciousness and pose serious challenges for the leadership of the future.
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A ‘change of time’ goes beyond a ‘change of time’. The first brings with it a transformation of the real structure of the world, with its respective breaks with the past –some abrupt and others silent– and enormous uncertainties about what the future will be that will inexorably have to be built from the present. For its part, the change in weather is limited to seasonal changes in processes and circumstances. It is perhaps the closest thing – in a figurative sense – to the passage from winter to spring, from summer to autumn, and so on.
The upheaval of the world is not a matter of chance, just like its fragility, fragmentation and polarization. We are –as we have stated from the Colombian Council of International Relations– in a ‘Cold Peace’. We live in the midst of tectonic plates that gradually move in different directions, in the geopolitical sphere; geoeconomics; climate change; the artificial intelligence revolution; the triple crisis of food, fuel and finance; and the renewed threats to international peace and security, through the explosive mixture of weapons of mass destruction with the prodigious precision of contemporary technologies.
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Russia’s war against Ukraine, the conflicts in the Sahel, migratory flows, the rise of populism and autocratic regimes, the increasing intensity of natural disasters or the lack of control in the progressive increase in global temperatures are, by way of example, , the tip of the iceberg.
We are in a phase that, in the words of the political scientist Samuel Huntington, would be called ‘clash of civilizations’ and today is driven by the vectors of technological competition, as well as the speed of information transmission and the dynamics inherent to the knowledge society and globalization. According to his thesis, the conflicts of the 21st century may not take place between countries, but between cultural groups or ‘civilizations’. He defined eight main ones: Western, Islamic, Orthodox, Japanese, African, Hindu, Sinic or Confucian, and Latin American, to which Buddhist culture was also added.
However, in the future it is probable that two or more different and sometimes opposing conceptions of seeing and understanding the world, the economy, politics and society will face each other. In this scenario –still being configured– it is clear that a bloc would be made up of the United States and Western nations that share their own values.
Another would be headed by China, which seeks to recover the ground lost as a result of the industrial revolution and generate alliances with revisionist countries –such as Russia and Iran– to ensure leadership, power and wealth. That is to say, the dragon has awakened with force, released its flames and singed more than one.
And the Global South – whose geographic diversity and political unity are under attack – will meditate between two hard-to-reconcile options: “active non-alignment” politics and alignment. What is at stake is the ability of States to have their own guide to action to address the battles for global hegemony. The outcome is still to be decided and the geopolitical consequences to be deciphered.
complex situation
In this context, Latin America arrives at this change of era in a fragile and divided position. It has lost relative importance in the world and the quality of its external insertion has deteriorated.
This fact is reflected in their diminished participation in world trade and investment flows; its limited incidence in the main global and multilateral debate forums; a very weak contribution in innovation and science, through the registration of patents; a population that is progressively aging; a productive apparatus still anchored in the past and production focused on goods with low added value; low intraregional trade; a fractured and ideological regional integration; among others.
Their economies are dragging three decades of poor performance and, after the destructive effects of the covid-19 pandemic, the region is now immersed in another ‘lost decade’ of development that may be even worse than the 1980s. Social indicators alert. In fact, poverty and extreme poverty have gone back 12 and 20 years, respectively.
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On the political level, Latin America is undergoing a process of institutional weakening and a ‘democratic recession’, according to the latest report by Latinobarómetro. It is facing the rise of autocratic governments and populist caudillos, polarization, disaffection with democratic values and principles, the poor performance and few results of popularly elected governments, and perverse dynamics of violence, drugs, and transnational crime. Therefore, it is necessary to recover understanding and overcome the political instability and ideological fragmentation that are generating centrifugal forces.
However, Latin America has the potential to become a solution region given its enormous wealth. It has a role to play and capital to contribute in natural resources, raw materials, climate change, clean energy and food. Lithium alone has 60 percent of the world’s reserves; in copper, 50 percent and in silver, 39 percent, as critical minerals for the energy transition. It has, in a few words, what other countries and blocs need and yearn for to compete effectively in a green and global economy.
Renewed leadership
The opportunity that Latin America has cannot be wasted. But this requires, in the midst of the change of era, renewed leadership. The region has an imperative to build long-term visions, think big, act pragmatically, and build broad consensus on the structural changes required to ensure a prosperous and inclusive future.
Being up to the task is a requirement and staying away from short-term glances is an obligation. The low-flying politicking that abounds in the neighborhood and some regional organizations, retailing with public resources, corruption, lack of transparency and the conception of the State as ‘spoils of war’ must be abandoned. Several countries in the region offer examples of these bad practices and their population has been plunged not only into poverty, but into misfortune and desolation.
It is necessary to understand politics and leadership with a capital ‘P’ and ‘L’, which allow putting aside differences, egos and personal vanities. Its leaders must set an example, but a good one to replicate over and over again. Above all, one must think and act boldly and creatively for the common good. Rigor, technique and science must be valued as the basis for decision-making, under the premise that mathematics is exact and the prevalence of a humanistic perspective. The collective over the particular should be the golden rule. Openness, humility, honesty, compassion, pragmatism, charisma and vision of the future are qualities to cultivate.
Not surprisingly, the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, at the age of 100, dedicated a study –a complete book– to this subject, based on the profile of six decisive political figures of the 20th century: Konrad Adenauer (Germany), Charles de Gaulle (France), Richard Nixon (United States), Anwar Sadat (Egypt), Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore) and Margaret Thatcher (United Kingdom). His effort was aimed at defining a good leader and providing some clues about the challenges that the future poses for the new political generations.
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Among his conclusions, he highlights that (i) we cannot choose our external circumstances, but we can always choose how we respond to them; (ii) the current era is disoriented because it lacks a moral and strategic vision, and (iii) leaders must guide and inspire their people.
For his part and at the regional level, the former president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Luis Alberto Moreno, in his book ¡Vamos!, makes an interesting portrait of some Latin American leaders, as well as the style of our leaders. He finds as a common feature in our societies the intense desire to scrutinize the past and to fight for the meaning of things that happened a decade or even a hundred years ago.
To this we must add the intention to act from the perspective of “chronic and systemic refoundationalism”. That is, the desire to ignore what was built in the past and try to do everything from the beginning.
Former President Moreno focuses his attention on what some call the ‘three tenors’: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (Brazil), Ernesto Zedillo (Mexico) and Ricardo Lagos (Chile). All of them governed during a period of enormous difficulties for the region, especially a financial crisis whose social effects were enormous.
Over the years, its commitment to democracy, the creation of independent institutions and a capitalism with a social conscience were central characteristics.
As common points, they managed to (i) have a long-term vision knowing that they would not reap political results in the short term; (ii) they put aside the ideology of their youth; (iii) they were pragmatic and successfully evaluated each situation and acted accordingly; (iv) they valued experience and nuance; and (v) they work around consensus building and with a wide variety of people. In short, they were bold leaders and made decisions that became unpopular, but are recognized by history today.
Final comments
During the change of times, the transformation of leadership begins at home. The path begins by understanding that our fate depends solely and exclusively on ourselves as a collective project of the nation, which fights for greater equality, justice and prosperity. Politics cannot remain in the hands of politicians (with a small ‘p’) and one must have the greatness and maturity of statesmen to boldly set the north. Here there is no license to be scared or let moods dominate a country or institutions.
Leaders, as Kissinger affirms, are measured and tested in moments of crisis. They are those who, in the midst of the storm, dodge waves, sharks and lightning, and arrive at a safe port without being overwhelmed. They are transformers in the strict sense of the word. They listen, discuss, decide, build, correct the course when necessary and assume responsibilities.
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The change of era in Latin America demands that the new generations assume, from now on, the challenges that tomorrow holds for them, to contribute with ideas, enthusiasm and energy to the recovery of the values and principles that allow us to build the society that we all long for.
The change of era is inevitably accompanied by a generational change and the detachment of the past that already was.
The youth are now called to fulfill their role and responsibility to dream, think and build the country, as well as fulfill their life goals. The future has arrived without delay.
GUILLERMO FERNANDEZ DE SOTO* AND ANDRÉS RUGELES**
For the time
President of the Colombian Council of International Relations (Cori) and former Foreign Minister (1998-2002).
(**) Visiting fellow of the University of Oxford and member of the Advisory Board of the Global South of the LSE.
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