The Republican elephant returns to the White House in the United States. After a close election campaign of just over 100 days between Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate, and Republican Donald Trump, the magnate has won the presidency of the country. The reactions to Trump’s victory resonate in the fiefdoms of the European Union, in the X accounts of leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Volodímir Zelensky in Ukraine, and also in Africa, where Trump’s return raises expectations throughout width of the continent.
From Morocco, King Mohamed VI congratulated Donald Trump on his election and predicted “broader horizons” in the bilateral relationship between the two countries. Other regional powers such as South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya joined in this congratulation. Precisely, this last country is one of the great allies of the United States on the continent, especially after the designation of the nation as a “main ally outside of NATO” during Joe Biden’s term. Other leaders, such as those of Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, Burundi and Guinea-Bissau, have joined in the recognition and diplomatic congratulations.
Beyond Morocco’s plan in the Sahara
In December 2020, Donald Trump became the first leader of a Western country to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Washington linked its decision to the formalization at the same time of the Tripartite Agreement between Morocco, the United States and Israel, through which Israel and Morocco reestablished their relations in different areas that had been suspended for decades.
Although US recognition of the Moroccan identity of the Sahara was maintained during Biden’s term, the Rabat plan has not been put into practice. It is now, with the return of Trump, that an extension of diplomatic, economic and military ties is expected, among which the opening of a US consulate in Dakhla (Western Sahara) stands out, as well as the extension of military maneuvers and exercises called Africa Lion towards Western Sahara. Africa Lion is the U.S. Army Africa Command’s largest military exercise, taking place in Morocco, Ghana, Senegal and Tunisia.
The US plan to establish a diplomatic delegation in Dakhla was first announced on December 10, 2020, following a conversation between King Mohammed VI and Trump. A few days later, on December 24, the US Secretary of State announced the establishment of a “virtual presence position” as the first step towards the creation of the new diplomatic mission.
Now, and according to the Institut Geopolitique Horizons (IGH), the opening could take place throughout the month of November, in the absence of official confirmation. Still, despite the American political change, the same report notes that the timing of this inauguration appears to be more related to the recent state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and the expected announcement of the opening of a French consulate in El Laayoune.
On the other hand, according to the Moroccan media Morroco World NewsUS President-elect George Lombardi’s senior adviser suggested that a second Trump administration could definitively end the Western Sahara dispute, leading Algeria and the Polisario Front to negotiate the terms of a political settlement.
Security and conservative discourse
In the last two years of the Biden Government (2021-2025), the United States has been overwhelmed by the coup wave in West Africa and, specifically, in the Sahel; due to the decline in human rights, the absence of democracy and the emergence of other foreign actors such as Russia and China.
“Despite the fact that during Trump’s first term the African continent remained in the background in the media, notable movements were made in terms of security and terrorism,” says the professor at the University of Girona and political analyst of African and political issues. researcher from the African Studies Group (GEA), Sebastián Ruiz Cabrera, in a conversation with elDiario.es.
The researcher mainly highlights the role that the Trump Administration (2017-2021) played in the fight against terrorist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria and considers that he will “continue to prioritize” this fight in his second term. However, the same story does not repeat itself if we look at Somalia and the fight against Al Shabab. In this case, in 2020 Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the Horn of Africa country in early 2021, putting at risk efforts in the fight against the jihadist group – a measure that Biden later reversed.
Besides, “Trump has shown a very pragmatic style in his international relations, especially with authoritarian or populist regimes. This, without a doubt, could benefit certain African leaders who have rightly been criticized for their lack of democracy, such as in Egypt, Uganda and Cameroon,” explains Ruiz Cabrera.
Over the last few years, some countries such as Uganda, Ghana or Mali have criminalized homosexuality, following a conservative trend close to the values of the Republican Party, unlike the ideological bases of the Democratic Party.
Geopolitical board with China
Economically, Trump will probably accentuate his trade rivalry against China on the African board. The Republican’s foreign policy is defined by the safeguarding of US interests: “The United States will fight in the struggle for geopolitical interests through economic tools,” explains the professor at the University of Girona. Among these tools, the professor highlights the offer of financial alternatives that are more favorable to the concerns of African countries regarding the debts contracted with China. Between 2000 and 2009, China exempted around 3.2 billion euros of debt from payment; and renegotiated another 14.15 billion debt with African countries.
Currently China, the second largest economy in the world, is the main trading partner of the African continent and is accessing reserves of natural resources such as gold, lithium, copper and rare earths. “China is developing the global macro project with the New Silk Road initiative that seeks to create modern infrastructure in Africa in exchange for resource concessions. Although Donald Trump will not suddenly be able to compete with the Chinese project, he will use the economic resources he has at his disposal,” adds Ruiz Cabrera.
The geographical location of countries such as Somalia, Djibouti or Ethiopia are of geopolitical interest to foreign actors, including the United States. During the first Trump Administration, the recognition of Somaliland was proposed, which could lead to the activation of a regional conflict between Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Ruiz Cabrera explains to elDiario.es that “at the moment there has been no formal recognition of the independence of Somaliland.” “Anti-terrorist security and cooperation relations will continue to be a priority with possible economic incentives,” he concludes.
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