The Russian invasion of Ukraine has again awakened world bipolarization, along the lines of the Cold War, with the difference that China is increasingly positioning itself as the main threat to the United States. In this scenario, the new year begins with a likely more ostensive Russian offensive in the neighboring country and with nuclear threats that change the way countries invest in security. In this tug of war between the two extremes of the globe, consequences and conflicts must spill over even in South America.
Since the Russian invasion of the neighboring country broke out on February 24, 2022, military exercises between Russia and China have become more of a concern to the United States and its allies. Last Friday (30), Russian President Vladimir Putin declared to Chinese dictator Xi Jinping that he intends to strengthen ties between the two countries.
“Against the context of unprecedented pressure and provocation from the West, we are defending our positions and principles,” Putin said, before announcing that he wants to “enhance cooperation between the armed forces of Russia and China.” According to him, “coordination between Moscow and Beijing on the international stage (…) serves the creation of a just world order based on international law.”
Alongside the Asian giant and Russia, North Korea also caught the attention of Western security last year. The country launched more than 90 cruise and ballistic missiles in 2022, against eight in 2021 and four in 2020. Experts point out that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un may have taken advantage of the moment when the West was turned to war in Ukraine to do their exercises that attest to the country’s military development.
According to the North Korean leader, the weapons represent the “dignity, body and absolute power of the State” and Pyongyang will continue to develop them “as long as there are nuclear weapons on Earth”.
Meanwhile, the US, South Korea and Japan have been better prepared to fight nuclear North Korea and the Russian-Chinese alliance. Western countries held joint exercises and fired their own missiles in response to North Korean tests. At the same time, the Americans intensified their presence in the region, installing aircraft carriers and sending new equipment to their allies on the Asian continent.
american strategy
In October 2022, the United States released the new version of the National Defense Strategy. “Competition with China was presented as the most complex challenge to US security. China and Russia are, in that order, the most dangerous threats”, points out Paulo Roberto Gomes da Silva Filho, colonel of the Army Reserve Cavalry and master in defense and strategy studies at the National Defense University, in Beijing.
“It is a matter of deepening the change of focus that had already started in the Donald Trump administration, in which China, Russia, Iran and North Korea were identified as the main threats to the US”, details the expert. Until then, terrorism appeared in the country’s official documents as the main threat”, he analyzes.
According to the American document, the Chinese giant is “increasingly aggressive, with the aim of reshaping the Indo-Pacific region and the international system and the purpose of adapting them to its interests”.
Russia, in turn, is described as a country that “uses force to change borders, ignoring the sovereignty of neighboring countries, to reimpose an imperial sphere of influence”.
The War in Ukraine
Despite the war in Ukraine taking longer than the Russians possibly expected and Russia finding difficulties in the neighboring territory, the conflicts are not expected to end and tend to intensify in the European winter.
The US think-thank Institute for War Studies (ISW) agreed with an assessment by the Ukrainian military leadership that Russia could be preparing for a major ground offensive this winter in the northern hemisphere, possibly against Kiev, since that the strategy of bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure “is failing to coerce Ukraine to negotiate or offer preemptive concessions.”
Defense and strategy analyst Gomes Filho assesses the small possibility of the conflict expanding beyond Ukrainian territory, such as Transnistria, Moldova, Belarus, or even a NATO member country, such as Poland. “This last possibility could provoke a sharp escalation of the conflict, with unimaginable repercussions”, he declares.
For the time being, the war in Eastern Europe has strengthened Russia’s ties with Iran, providing an opportunity for the Iranians to sell equipment to the Russians, especially “kamikaze drones”. In return, Russia could help the Iranians develop their nuclear program. According to Filho, this relationship could increase tensions in the Middle East, with greater mutual distrust between Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Cooperation with allies and consequences in South America
In this world scenario, Japan announced that it will double the defense budget, reaching the largest military investment of the pacifist nation since the Second World War. The new plan will include acquiring missiles capable of hitting China and North Korea.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl supported joint military exercises with the US. Recently, the “Watchful Storm” became the largest aerial exercise in the country’s history.
With the growing Chinese threat, the sovereignty of Taiwan – which China claims to be part of the country – has also become a concern for the West. This week, the island’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, announced that she will extend mandatory military service from four months to one year from 2024 due to the current geopolitical landscape.
The US counts on the mobilization of Western countries in a kind of political and military cooperation. The document published in October presents a tool to face the Eastern threat, the so-called “integrated deterrence”, which consists of actions aimed at aligning the policies, investments and activities of the Ministry of Defense of the country and, at the same time, obtaining a cooperation of partner and allied countries.
The National Strategy envisions “integrated deterrence as a concept for maintaining peace and stability in the Western Hemisphere by prioritizing regional cooperation in all domains of defense and security and reducing barriers in relation to the sharing of information and capabilities”.
Among the allies, the Americans are targeting countries in South America, which have strong trade relations with China. This is expected to increase tensions between the two geopolitical adversaries and spill over into the politics of countries in the region.
“This will be perceived with increasing intensity, in addition to movements on both sides to contain the opponent and attract the South Americans into their sphere of influence”, analyzes Filho.
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