Nicolás Maduro resists internal and external pressures and remains in power despite doubts about his legitimacy. The Venezuelan president, who assumed the presidency in 2013, was sworn into office this Friday and secured a third term until 2031—after an electoral victory questioned inside and outside Venezuela.
However, the Venezuelan political and institutional crisis worsened in 2015, when the ruling party lost control of the Assembly. Since then, Venezuela has been immersed in a political crisis for a decade in which there has been a self-proclamation, an attempted military uprising, manipulation of humanitarian aid, institutional duplicity, sanctions, exile and doubtful electoral results.
2013: victory and audit of minutes
Maduro became president of Venezuela after winning a close presidential election in 2013 against Henrique Capriles called after the death of Hugo Chávez. With a massive turnout of around 80%, Maduro won by a difference of 224,268 votes (1.49 points).
However, Capriles said that he did not recognize the results and that he was even the winner, requesting an audit of the minutes. Venezuelans cast their vote electronically, but the machines provide a ticket that the voter subsequently enters into a ballot box. The official count is done through the data transmitted to the National Electoral Council (CNE) by the machines, but at the same time a percentage of those ballot boxes are opened throughout the country to carry out a double check. The opposition asked to open 100% of the polls compared to the scheduled 53%. The CNE accepted and the review showed a 99.98% coincidence with official data. A fingerprint audit was also carried out to rule out duplicate votes.
“The automated electoral system worked as expected when transmitting and counting the votes,” Carter Center election mission report concluded despite Capriles’ complaints. A year earlier, in 2012, he assured that “of the 92 monitored elections, the electoral process in Venezuela is the best in the world.” The report did detect inequalities during the campaign between the Government and the opposition.
2015: the battle begins
In the 2015 legislative elections, Maduro loses control of the National Assembly. Two years later, the Supreme Court leaves the Chamber without powers and the Government creates the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) with the objective of drafting a Constitution.
Considering that the president’s objective was to have a legislative chamber controlled by the Government after having lost control of the official one, the opposition did not participate in the ANC elections and the Constituent Assembly assumed legislative powers. Both bodies, one controlled by the Government and the other by the opposition, were operational, exchanging accusations about their legitimacy.
In December 2020, the Government regains control of the National Assembly in an election marked by an opposition boycott and high abstention (with participation 40 points lower than in 2015). Just a few days later, the Executive dissolves the National Constituent Assembly without having fulfilled its initial objective of reforming the constitution.
2019: Operation Guaidó
In January 2018, the National Constituent Assembly approved a decree calling for early presidential elections – Maduro’s term ended in 2019. The opposition boycotted the elections and Maduro won almost 68% of the votes (although he received more than a million fewer votes than in 2013).
Unlike previous presidential elections, when there was 80% participation, this time only 46% of voters voted, the lowest figure in decades. The EU and the US denounced the electoral process. “It has not met the minimum international standards for a credible process,” said the high representative.
The National Assembly, still controlled by the opposition, does not recognize the 2018 elections and in January 2019 considers that Maduro’s mandate has ended. In a joint operation with Washington, the former president of the Assembly, the opposition Juan Guaidó, proclaims himself president of the country. A cascade of countries, including the majority of the EU, is following in the US’s wake to try to overthrow Maduro.
Maduro does not give in and remains in power. Guaidó, Trump’s US and conservative Iván Duque’s Colombia then launch a new operation to overthrow Maduro. Through a large caravan of trucks with humanitarian aid from Colombia, they try to measure and break the support of the armed forces to the Government. That February 23, some of the trucks burned – the US publicly blamed the Government for burning the humanitarian aid, but it was later proven that it was an accident caused by the opponents who were trying to break the police barrier. Finally, in April the opposition launched its last maneuver, also with the support of the US, with an attempt at a military uprising that ended in failure.
Meanwhile, the Trump Government imposed a battery of sanctions that suffocated the Venezuelan economy: it suffered a contraction of 19.7%, 27.7% and 30% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.
2023: Barbados Agreement
The Guaidó operation collapsed failure after failure. With the change of Administration, Joe Biden opted for negotiation and pressured, on the one hand, for the Maduro Government to agree to hold fair elections and for the opposition, on the other, to return to the institutional path. Both parties signed the Barbados Agreement to hold fair elections in 2024 and, in exchange, the US lifted sanctions that, according to the US Congress think tank, “have exacerbated the economic and humanitarian crisis” in the country.
When Biden eased sanctions in 2022, the Venezuelan economy grew 6%. Economists Jeffrey Sachs and Mark Weisbrot called this round of sanctions “illegal collective punishment against the civilian population.” “The sanctions reduced the population’s caloric intake, increased illness and mortality (both adults and children), and displaced millions of Venezuelans who fled the country due to worsening economic depression and hyperinflation,” they wrote.
After the disqualification of María Corina Machado, the main opposition leader, the US considered that Maduro was breaching the Barbados Agreement and reimposed sanctions, although leaving an open door for some companies to continue doing business in Venezuela.
2024: victory questioned
In July 2024, the National Electoral Council announces the victory of Nicolás Maduro in the elections with a participation of 58%. According to official data, the president would have obtained 51.9% of the votes (just over six million) compared to 43.18% for his rival Edmundo González. However, the CNE, alleging a cyber attack, does not break down the results by table and does not show the minutes.
The Carter Center, invited once again as an election observer as provided for in the Barbados Agreement, concluded that: “Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election did not comply with international parameters and standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” “The Carter Center cannot verify or corroborate the authenticity of the presidential election results declared by the National Electoral Council. The fact that the electoral authority has not announced results broken down by polling station constitutes a serious violation of electoral principles,” he added.
Maduro harshly criticized the Carter Center, accusing it of writing the report before the elections, but just a week before the elections, Defense Minister Vladímir Padrinoreceived the observers and noted that their visit was very gratifying. “We welcome you to the Carter Center, which has earned prestige throughout the world and not only in electoral tasks, but also in democracy and conflict solutions,” said the minister. “It is because of the seriousness that the Carter Center represents in this matter that the CNE has invited them to accompany us in these upcoming elections on July 28,” he added.
The opposition claims to have obtained a high percentage of the original records issued by the voting machines and that, according to them, Maduro has lost the elections. The head of the Carter Center mission, Jennie Lincoln, says she has reviewed the opposition numbers and maintains that Edmundo González won “with more than 60%”. He also ruled out the possibility of an attack: “Companies monitor and know when there are denials of service and there was not one that night. The transmission of voting data is by telephone line and satellite phone, and not by computer. “They have not lost data.”
For its part, the UN observation mission, also established in the Barbados Agreement, criticized the lack of transparency in the count: “The announcement of the result of an election without the publication of its details or the disclosure of tabulated results to the candidates is unprecedented in contemporary democratic elections.”
Meanwhile, the UN fact-finding mission in Venezuela “has determined that the repressive apparatus remains fully operational.” “Between August and December 2024, authorities detained at least 56 political opposition activists, 10 journalists and one human rights defender. “Those who order arbitrary detentions and the imposition of torture or other ill-treatment, as well as those who carry them out, have individual criminal responsibility.” declared last week one of its members.
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