The problem of access to housing will continue to be one of Spain’s great challenges in 2025, in a year in which all experts agree in predicting new price increases due to the lack of product and a demand that has been encouraged by the cheaper financing.
2024 was marked by the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), in the first half of the year by the rate hikes to contain inflation that cooled the sales market, and that turned around in the second half with successive discounts that have reactivated operations due to better mortgage conditions. A trend that is expected to continue in 2025.
But without a doubt The great concern among the sector is the lack of available supply to face a demand that continues to grow in the heat of migratory flows to Spain, the progressive decrease in the number of members per household that has been observed in recent years and the strength of the labor market.
Experts rule out, however, the existence of a bubble and they point out that the current situation differs greatly from what was experienced a few years ago during the boom in the sector.
This imbalance is one of the factors that is pushing up pricesincreases that are also evident in rent due to the flight of many contracts towards other modalities such as tourism or seasonal contracts, which are detracting from the offer of residential solutions.
In this context, the Government works in a large public housing company, has launched an electronic platform to register short-term rentals with which it wants to avoid fraud and illegal tourist flatsand focuses its efforts on increasing the housing stock with the priority of increasing affordable rental housing. And it is that Housing has become a capital issue in political discourse.
On Monday the Government will hold a monographic act on housing and this weekend the PP does the same with its barons.
Housing and rent will continue to rise
Bankinter has revised its forecasts upwards and expects housing to become 5% more expensive this year. It is expected that the areas with the greatest increase will be the large cities, the Mediterranean coast and the islands, due to population concentration and foreign demand.
In fact, Tinsa already detected in 2024 that on the islands prices exceed all-time highs. Solvia, for its part, estimates that housing prices will close 2025 with a growth of between 4% and 5%, and that rents will increase by over 10%.
Fotocasa predicts a 7% rise both for housing and rentals; while Pisos.com expects increases of 12% and 10.3%respectively. Idealista agrees that this upward trend, both in housing for sale and rental, will continue in 2025.
Another historic year in purchasing
The acceleration of sales in the second half of 2024, fueled by rate cuts, the strong demand and the fear of steeper price increases lead to another historic year.
In the absence of knowing the data from the Ministry of Housing and the INE By 2024, Fotocasa believes that it will be the second best year since 2007, with around 620,000 operations, and that these will increase slightly in 2025; while Idealista does not expect significant increases for this year due to the lack of product.
Pisos.com aims for 2025 record figures, with more than 666,000 operations; and Solvia, which this year will end with an increase of 2-3%, which will be maintained in 2025; exercise in which Bankinter predicts that sales will stabilize at 600,000, well above the historical average (500,000).
The Real Estate Credit Union (UCI) sees a very probable growth in sales in the around 10%.
Mortgage activity grows
Pisos.com also advances an upward trend in the mortgage market, of 14.5%. Fotocasa is betting that there will be a reinforcement of the solvent buyer and an opportunity for young people and that the de-escalation of interest rates marks the beginning of a new mortgage cycle, with 420,000 in 2025, one of the best years since 2010.
The new cheaper financing will bring an increase in demand, which could further complicate accessibility to housing for sale in the most in-demand markets and, consequently, put more pressure on prices, adds Idealista, which estimates that during 2025 a lot of mortgage activity continues to be seen with very competitive fixed rates.
Bankinter also adds that the income used to pay the mortgage has begun to reduce, reflecting the fall of the Euriborand that in the coming months it is likely to be below the historical average (35%), although experts recommend that it not exceed 30%.
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