Prior to the agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush an “armed rebellion” after Wagner’s forces captured Rostov and Voronezh and a 5,000-man force marched toward Moscow.
Prior to the development of events, Prigozhin’s statements against the Russian military leadership, specifically against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, were harsh and amounted to insults, against the background of providing his group with ammunition and weapons.
Below is a timeline of events that have unfolded over the past 24 hours.
Start: Friday
- Prigozhin posted a video in which he escalated his disagreement with Russia’s top military officers, and for the first time rejected Moscow’s basic justifications for the special military operation in Ukraine.
- Prigozhin accused the Russian forces of bombing Wagner’s forces, causing the deaths of thousands of his men, and vowed to respond.
- In a series of subsequent audio recordings on Telegram, Prigozhin said that the “evil” of the Russian military leadership “must stop” and that Wagner’s forces would lead a “march for justice” against the Russian army.
- Russia’s Federal Security Service responded by opening a criminal case against Prigozhin, saying he had advocated “armed rebellion.”
- The deputy commander of the Russian campaign in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovkin, urged the Wagner Group to stop opposing the military leadership and return to its bases.
Acceleration of events: Today is Saturday
- Prigozhin said his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and are ready to go “to great lengths” in their opposition to the Russian military.
- Wagner fighters entered the southern Russian city of Rostov, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted to Telegram.
- The White House said it is monitoring the situation between Russia and the Wagner Group, and will consult with allies and partners on developments.
- Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov officially informs Putin of the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed rebellion.
- The governor of the Rostov region, bordering Ukraine in southern Russia, advises residents to remain calm and stay in their homes as it becomes clear that Wagner’s forces have taken control of the city of Rostov.
- The Russian Defense Ministry issues a statement appealing to the Wagner fighters to abandon their leader, saying they were “deceived and drawn into a criminal adventure”.
- A Russian security source told Reuters that Wagner fighters had taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh, about 500 km south of Moscow.
- Putin delivers a televised speech pledging to crush the “armed rebellion” and accusing Prigozhin of “treason” and of “stab in the back” to Russia.
- Prigozhin rejected Putin’s accusation of treason.
- A statement attributed to Wagner’s forces said that “Russia will have a new president.”
- Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Putin, says his forces are ready to help put down Prigozhin’s rebellion and use harsh methods if necessary.
- European governments including Britain, France, Germany and Italy are issuing statements saying they are closely monitoring developments in Russia.
- Russian military helicopters open fire on a convoy of Wagner rebels after they cut more than halfway towards Moscow in a lightning advance after capturing Rostov overnight.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that “Russia’s weakness is clear” and that the longer Moscow keeps its forces and mercenaries in Ukraine, the more chaos it will invite to retreat.
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko communicates with the Russian president, offering mediation to end the armed rebellion.
- Prigozhin accepts Lukashenko’s mediation and orders his fighters to return to their former bases in Lugansk to avoid bloodshed.
End: Sunday
- The Kremlin said Prigozhin would move to Belarus “and the criminal charges against him will also be dropped”.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that the Russian president is the guarantor of the settlement agreement, which was brokered by Lukashenko.
- The regional governor of the city of Rostov, Vasily Golubev, announced, via Telegram, that Wagner fighters left the city after they took control of it on Saturday and headed towards their camps.
- Russian media reported that all restrictions on highways in the country had been lifted.
- Russia’s Tass news agency said security measures have been kept in place on the Moscow-Tula highway.
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