Market analysts heard by the Ministry of Finance project that the government will deliver a negative primary result of BRL 81.930 billion in 2024. The deficit expectation was reduced in relation to the estimate released in June, when the survey pointed to a negative primary result of BRL 88.324 billion. The government intends to zero the deficit next year with the new fiscal framework, still pending approval in the Chamber.
For 2023, the market expects a negative result of BRL 99.262 billion, lower than the negative fiscal target of BRL 230 billion defined in the Budget. The data are contained in the July Prisma Fiscal bulletin, released this Wednesday, 19, by the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the folder. In June, the market estimate was that this year’s deficit would be R$ 101.750 billion.
One of the objectives of the new fiscal rule is to pursue primary surpluses, starting from a neutral result in 2024. The proposal replaces the current expenditure ceiling, with more flexible rules for government expenditures. By design, spending can only grow by up to 70% of the increase in revenue, within the range of 0.6% to 2.5% above inflation.
The new fiscal framework was sent by the Treasury to Congress in April, and approved by the Chamber in May. After alterations promoted by the Senate, in June, the text needs to be analyzed again by the deputies, which will only occur in August.
This month’s Prisma revised downwards market forecasts for federal revenues in 2023, with the estimate going from BRL 2.355 trillion to BRL 2.353 trillion. For 2024, the projection for the collection dropped in the comparison between June and July, from R$ 2.520 trillion to R$ 2.516 trillion.
The estimate for the Central Government’s net revenue this year went from R$1.925 trillion to R$1.926 trillion, while for next year it dropped from R$2.079 trillion to R$2.077 trillion.
On the spending side, the projection of total Central Government expenditures this year increased from R$ 2.023 trillion to R$ 2.020 trillion. For 2024, the estimate decreased from BRL 2.170 trillion to BRL 2.167 trillion.
The median of Prisma analysts’ projections for the Gross Debt of the General Government at the end of 2023 increased from 76.67% of GDP to 76.09% of GDP in July. For 2024, the estimate that was at 79.80% of GDP in June went to 79% of GDP in today’s report. Data were collected until the 5th of this month.
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