Express olive campaign. The absence of rainfall is causing a high harvest rate, which at the end of December and according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture already reaches 883,588.87 tons, which represents 68.4% of the harvest estimate in the national measurements. The price at origin and in bulk, after several weeks of decreases in which it was below 4 euros on average, rises again, up to 4.3 euros per kilo on average between the different categories according to the operations registered in the Poolred reference system. Experts indicate that prices will continue to adjust to supply and demand in the coming weeks after the moments of tension experienced in November and early December, with the entry of new oil into the market.
The production declared during the month of December was 583,281.16 tonshigher by 255,256 than those produced in this same month in the last campaign, very marked by drought.
The feeling among producers such as Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias (which may account for more than two thirds of the Andalusian total) is that they are going toReach capacity of 1.2 million tonsjust over 1 million in Andalusia. There is oil to supply the market, but without fanfare or any rational element justifying further reductions in the price at source.
To measure availability, we must add to what has been produced so far some 190,000 tons of link (figure revised slightly upwards in this edition of the Ministry’s data). And we would have to subtract the departures in October and November.
The departures totaled 115,410 in the month of December tons (19,170 more than in the same month of 2023). The accumulated departures in this third month of the campaign are 313,190 tons.
To calculate departures during December, some imports of 26,000 tons and that will be confirmed once Customs publishes the consolidated data.
Who has the oil?
The stocks in oil mills stand at 683,854.15 tons, which is 449,887.81 t more than in the month of November, according to data provided this month by MAPA.
The stocks in packaging machines are 135,560 tons which is 41,000 more than the previous month.
The stocks in the Olivarero Communal Heritage stands at 4,314 tonswhich is 3,470 more than in the month of November.
Total stocks at the end of December are 823,729.57 tonswhich is 495,240 more than in the month of November. It is the oil available until the new campaign begins in October of this year.
Expectations
The evolution of prices up to that moment is significantly influenced by forecast of the next harvest. What is being collected now can be considered average, after two years of great scarcity due to drought. December, traditionally a month of good rainfall, has been the second driest of the century in Spain. In January still practically not a drop has fallen in the olive-growing regions.
The olive tree is a evergreen tree: it alternates good and bad harvests. The current harvest has been very demanding, especially in the drylands, since there was abundant rain in spring and little in autumn, after a very hot summer. Without rain in winter, producers say, will not have the strength to sustain adequate flowering and future harvest. In provinces like Jaén, the world’s main producer, there is already a lot of concern about this issue.
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