União Brasil, PP, Republicanos, MDB and PSD are more often in coalition with Bolsonaro’s party than with Lula’s Federation
União Brasil, PP, Republicanos, MDB and PSD together have 10 ministries in the government. Despite this, all of them are in coalition in the 2024 elections more often with Bolsonaro’s PL than with the Federação Brasil Esperança, which includes PT, PC do B and PV.
The biggest gap in the number of coalitions is that of União Brasil. The party is present in 942 coalitions accompanied by the PL. There are 435 more coalitions than those accompanied by the PT (507).
The PP is the 2nd most distant ally. It has participated in 995 mayoral elections in coalition with Bolsonaro’s party and is only in coalition with Lula’s party in 595 elections.
The numbers clearly show the government’s lack of identity with its base in Congress. The allies with the most votes in the Legislature maintain a close relationship with Bolsonaro’s party, even after the government considered that supporters of the former president were involved in an attempted coup.
Lula governed twice in adverse scenarios, but the situation has changed. The Centrão and the opposition have more seats in Congress today than in the 2000s. The strategies used in the past to gain political support, such as distributing amendments and ministries, are less effective now. As the Poder360congressmen practically have an individual budget each to invest. Most of it is money that the government is obliged to pay through mandatory amendments.
The most connected
The MDB and PSD, which each have 3 ministries, are also closer to Bolsonaro, although with a smaller difference.
The parties launched the most candidates in the municipal elections. The MDB launched 1,923 candidacies for mayor; the PSD, 1,738.
Both are together in 1,260 municipal lists, forming the most frequent coalition in these elections.
The data shows that Novo is very close to Bolsonaro’s PL. Of the party’s 346 coalitions, 141 (or 41%) are with the former president’s party.
The PL’s most frequent ally, however, is the PP. They are together in 35% of Bolsonaro’s party’s participation in the elections.
Small parties, such as PCB, UP and PSTU, have 100% of their 11 coalitions with the Psol/Rede Federation.
The PT/PC do B/PV Federation has the MDB as its most frequent ally. Of the 3,208 municipal slates in which it participates, it is alongside the MDB members in 855 (27%) of them.
#Elections #acronyms #ministries #ally