President Jair Bolsonaro is expected in Russia next Tuesday, a visit that Washington has been unable to prevent and that sows perplexity amid the Russian-Western crisis over Ukraine.
For analysts, the Brazilian’s trip – who is due to go to Hungary for his ally Viktor Orban on Thursday – could hardly have come at a worse time and responds to domestic political concerns.
“The timing is very bad,” Guilherme Casarões, a political analyst at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) told AFP. “It will be more and more tense on the border” of Ukraine, where the clatter of Russian boots chases away hopes of de-escalation.
“The United States put a lot of pressure (on Brasília) to have this visit cancelled,” Felipe Loureiro, professor of international relations at the University of São Paulo (USP) told AFP. Several ministers also spoke out against this displacement.
But a cancellation “would have sent the signal that Brazil is a puppet of the United States”, he adds, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eager to show he is not isolated, “would be furious”.
The invitation sent by Moscow at the end of November, when tensions were already building, will therefore be honored, despite the specter of a war in Europe: the Brazilian president is due to be received in the Kremlin on Wednesday by his Russian counterpart, a “strong man” he admires.
Jair Bolsonaro declared that he is going to Moscow to “improve trade relations” with the Russian “partner”, even though he is “aware of the problems that some countries have with Russia”.
The biggest power in Latin America does not want to get involved in this conflict with an air of Cold War and defends “dialogue”. In confirming his visit on Saturday, as tensions around Ukraine reach their peak, the president asked “God to reign peace in the world”.
With no major agreements planned, the motivation of Jair Bolsonaro, for whom polls predict a resounding defeat against former President Lula in the October presidential elections, is “electoral”, for Casarões, from FGV.
– “Last diplomatic card” –
The much-weakened president “has virtually nothing to his credit after three years in office. Going to Russia is a sign of greatness for him.”
Bolsonaro “turned his back on the United States, China, Europe,” continues the analyst, who describes Brazil’s diplomatic isolation as “unprecedented.”
The Brazilian president is therefore aiming for “a last diplomatic gamble”, he continues. “He needs to flatter” his radical electorate by going to authoritarian leaders like Putin and Orban, while satisfying the powerful agribusiness lobby.
Bolsonaro could also find in Putin a precious ally in a campaign that promises to be tense: he has already warned that he will contest any defeat in October.
“The main objective of this visit for Bolsonaro is undemocratic”, adds, like other analysts, Felipe Loureiro.
“It is totally linked to the desire to disrupt the Brazilian election. And we know that Russia likes cyberattacks and disinformation,” he adds.
According to a Brazilian diplomatic source, discussions will focus on Russian investments in hydrocarbons and infrastructure in Brazil and on trade, which is still modest.
Russia mainly supplies fertilizers to this large agricultural producer, from which it buys beef, poultry, soybeans, coffee and peanuts – but it does not represent more than 0.74% of Brazilian exports.
Brazil, a member with Russia of the BRICS (with India, China, South Africa) became, for two years – from 2022/23 – a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, where it could possibly side with Putin. on the Ukraine issue, after supporting the United States a week ago.
– “Blocked channels” –
If Ukraine makes it to the table, that visit risks becoming a diplomatic nightmare for a Bolsonaro anxious not to stray from the bilateral.
“He is unpredictable and if he says anything that seems to support Putin, he will bring a lot of problems for Brazil, especially with the United States”, believes Loureiro.
The bilateral relationship has been cold since Republican Donald Trump left the White House, and his successor, Joe Biden, has yet to speak to Jair Bolsonaro. “Their communication channels are blocked”, observes Guilherme Casarões.
Thanks to its proximity to Trump, Bolsonaro’s Brazil became in 2019 “great non-NATO ally”. But currently, the US embassy in Brasilia has not had an ambassador since mid-2021.
The United States, like Europe, no longer expects much from Brasilia before a new government takes office in 2023, according to analysts.
For lack of anything better, the State Department wanted Bolsonaro to promote in Moscow “the common values (…) of democracy and the rule of law” and called for “post-trip discussions with (his) Brazilian partner.”
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