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30 planes out of action; and 60 could follow. Analysts believe Putin’s air force is outdated. They may even have to hunt the F-16 now.
Kiev – “The Russians are losing jets 20 times faster than they can replace them,” writes David Axe. Forbes-Author published a claim by the Ukrainian Air Force at the end of February that it had shot down ten Russian combat aircraft within ten days: nine of the Russian Air Force’s best fighter-bombers, the Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35, and a Beriev A-50 radar aircraft. Now Ukraine is upping the ante: The Directorate for Strategic Communications (StratCom) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has published a map on Facebook according to which its defense forces have shot down more than 30 Russian military aircraft belonging to Vladimir Putin since the beginning of 2024 – this is currently reported by the Ukrainian Pravda.
Most crashes occurred in the heavily contested administrative districts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. The reasons for the recent successes are apparently complex – the increased accuracy of Ukraine may be one reason, also due to the missile supplies now being deployed from the West. The more aggressive Russian offensives around Kharkiv may also be a reason for the higher losses of the invading army.
Increasing losses: The hit of the Su-57 Prestige bomber in particular has hurt Russia
According to reports from the Center for Strategic Communications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (StratCom), the Ukrainian armed forces destroyed or damaged the following fighter jets and bombers: nine Su-25s, one Su-57, two MiG-31s, about 13 Su-34s, two Su-35s, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 airborne commando and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. The hit on the Su-57 prestige bomber in particular hurt Russia.
“However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizeable F-16 force will increase Ukraine’s chances of success, even if an F-16 never shoots down a Russian fighter jet.”
At the beginning of June, Ukraine claims to have fired on this Russian stealth bomber for the first time – probably from a drone. This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. Whether the aircraft was damaged or destroyed remains to be seen. For Justin Bronk, the successful Ukrainian use of long-range drones against the Russian Air and Space Forces (VKS) is invaluable: “Kiev appears to be pursuing a clear strategy of either forcing the VKS to evacuate its bases within a radius of several hundred kilometers of the Ukrainian border or using an excessive number of air defense systems to defend them.”
Russia on the offensive: “Enemy has overcome fear of operations over the battlefield”
Ukraine has too few Patriots and ATACMS missiles to achieve arms parity with Russia. And the analyst at the British Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)ur unlikely. “Only ground victories and unacceptable Russian losses will force Putin to negotiate,” writes Michael Bohnert in parallel. The most important supplies for the Ukrainian army are still artillery, medical equipment, infantry weapons, ground vehicles and drones, judges the analyst of the Californian think tank EDGE.
The Russian Air Force senses its opportunity and is flying more missions closer to the front line; it is dropping glide bombs to put pressure on Ukrainian troops and thus be able to advance, the magazine judges Forbes and quotes the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategy: “The enemy has overcome its fear of using aircraft directly over the battlefield, and although this leads to the loss of aircraft, its ground forces gain a significant advantage in terms of firepower.” This increase in Russian attacks represents additional targets for the Ukrainian air defense, which explains, according to Forbesthe increase in Russian aircraft shot down.
Advance near Kharkiv: Further suicide missions unavoidable
An increase in ground offensives around Kharkiv would force the Russian Air Force to undertake further suicide missions. But even the announced reinforcement of the Ukrainian Air Force with Western aircraft does not seem to be an alternative to attacks with ATACMS, writes Justin Bronk: Even if the long-awaited F-16 fighter jets, the Swedish Gripen C and the French Mirage 2000-5F were to be deployed by Ukraine, intercepting the Russian glide bombers would be a Herculean task.
He judges that Ukrainian pilots of F-fighter jets would have to fly at very low altitudes near the front to avoid being caught and eliminated by Russian short-range or long-range air defenses. So far, around 100 Russian fighter planes are said to be out of action, according to various media estimates. A debacle for Putin’s invasion army: “You can twist and turn it however you like: the Sukhoi Su-25 is the epitome of a fighter plane,” writes the magazine Flight ReviewAccording to this, the ground attack aircraft is involved on both sides.
Su-25 ground attack aircraft: Ukraine’s trump card in the first days of the war
The Su-25 may even form the backbone of the ground-based “special operation,” as the Russian news agency Cup suggested in May last year – and suffers the highest losses. However, this applies to both sides, as the British online magazine Key Aero from the early days of the Ukraine war reported on the missions of Ukrainian pilots:
At this point, the Su-25s were flying extremely low over the columns of enemy vehicles, carrying out direct attacks with various unguided weapons and thus being directly exposed to Russian air defense systems, shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft artillery, as well as air-to-air missiles from Russian reconnaissance aircraft – and finally to the explosion and fragments of their own weapons. The most intense battles, writes Key Aero to the Kherson administrative district. There, Ukrainian Su-25 pilots confronted the Russian invaders advancing from Crimea at the Dnipro.
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“In the numerous battles in this area in the first days of the war, at least four Su-25s were lost, three pilots were killed and one was taken prisoner,” Key Aero summarizes the Ukrainian Air Force’s devastation at the beginning of the war. The ground attack aircraft is therefore always an immediate part of ground offensives – further losses are probably inevitable here. And perhaps especially when the F-16s arrive in Ukraine. “It is to be expected that the VKS will lose around 60 aircraft this year due to overuse,” writes Michael Bohnert.
The RAND analyst adds to the unexpected losses caused by combat the calculated losses: those caused by an aircraft flying more hours than planned, which shortens its overall service life, he writes. “According to current information, the VKS is expected to suffer about 60 calculated aircraft losses due to overuse this year. This corresponds to the loss of 26 new aircraft. At the same time, the VKS is currently only acquiring about 20 Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft per year.”
Ukraine on the trigger: F-16 could force Russia to change tactics
According to his analyses, the air war has shown a stable intensity since mid-2023; an exception would have been the support of the Avdiivka offensive in February 2024 – with around 150 sorties by Russian aircraft per day. The offensive near Kharkiv will have meant a similar increase, which is also the reason for the higher number of kills. However, according to Borchert, the Russian Air Force has changed its tactics and thus conserved its own resources. Above all, the use of glide bombs as long-range weapons and the use of more machines would “reduce accelerated aging,” he writes.
Borchert believes that the greatest chance against the Russian Air Force is the destruction of its bases – possibly by drones, i.e. weapons over which Ukraine has sole control. In the best case scenario, Ukraine could force its opponent to move its forces further back into its own hinterland. The analyst hopes that the use of the F-16 and the Swedish Gripen will force the Russian Air Force to hunt down the Western aircraft and lose ground attack capacity.
This could cause Russia’s air force to bleed dry. After all, just over half of the VKS’s tactical aircraft are more than 30 years old and have fewer flight hours left, writes Borchert. “However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizeable F-16 force will increase Ukraine’s chances of success, even if an F-16 never shoots down a Russian fighter jet.”
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