When Bola Tinubu receives the German Chancellor this Sunday, the Nigerian president will have at least one less thing to worry about. Late last week, the country’s Supreme Court confirmed his March election victory. This was preceded by a heated legal and media campaign by the two defeated opposition candidates, who contested the election and the result using all means possible. One of them, Peter Obi, has many supporters, especially among younger voters, who call themselves “Obidients” and who enthusiastically followed their idol on social media during the election campaign.
After his triumph in court, the 71-year-old Tinubu still has many other, far greater challenges to overcome. Nigeria’s economy is the largest in Africa in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of Egypt and South Africa. But according to the World Poverty Clock, a third of the population lives in extreme poverty.
The National Bureau of Statistics classifies more than 133 million Nigerians as “multidimensional poor,” meaning they lack adequate access to health care, education, water and sanitation.
Fuel subsidies abolished
Tinubu, nicknamed the “Godfather” in Nigeria because of his previous successful term as governor of Lagos, has so far pushed forward with a pace of reform that has surprised even his supporters and many Obidients. On the day he was sworn in, he abolished the expensive but popular fuel subsidies. Last year the state spent ten billion dollars on this. That’s four times the amount spent on healthcare.
Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. However, due to the lack of functioning refineries, gasoline and diesel have to be imported, which drives up prices at gas stations. Huge amounts of oil are disappearing due to theft from pipelines and production systems, meaning that the state is losing out on large amounts of revenue. The new president then ensured that the central bank eliminated the confusing juxtaposition of different official exchange rates.
For a short time, the agility led to a sense of optimism compared to Tinubu’s predecessor Muhammadu Buhari, who was often absent. But reality has now caught up with Nigerians. The abolition of fuel subsidies in particular is hitting the population hard.
In the meantime, even the notorious traffic jams in Lagos disappeared due to the abrupt increase in prices. Taxi drivers and commuters slept in their cars on Victoria Island, Lagos’s business district, to save the cost of driving home in the evening and returning the next morning. Inflation climbed to more than 26 percent by September, the highest level in almost 18 years.
Economic and security problems
An attempt to abolish the subsidies triggered protests a good ten years ago and ultimately failed. This time, Nigeria’s unions threatened an indefinite strike over the high cost of living. When the government finally promised temporarily higher wages for civil servants, temporary income support and food packages for the poorest, the unions gave in. But observers believe protests and strikes are still likely.
Even when the food parcels are being distributed, there are always troubles and fights in many places. Critics also point out that the aid only provides short-term relief. According to economists, gasoline prices are now being subsidized by the state again, but the government denies this.
According to the program, the Chancellor, accompanied by a cultural and economic delegation, will also meet the head of the commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Omar Alieu Touray, in Nigeria and, among other things, visit a German-Nigerian center for jobs, migration and reintegration. In a survey conducted during the term of Tinubu’s predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, seven out of ten respondents said they would leave Nigeria if given the opportunity.
In addition to the economic situation, security also plays a role, particularly attacks and kidnappings by the terrorist organization Boko Haram in the north of the country.
Aside from bilateral relations, Scholz will discuss economic cooperation, global issues and regional security with his Nigerian counterpart. One focus is likely to be the situation in the coup-plagued Sahel region. After the coup in Niger, Tinubu, as ECOWAS chairman, threatened a military strike if the coup leaders did not release the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. He later switched to a more diplomatic course and described a military strike as only a “last resort”.
Nearly 100 days later, Bazoum remains in captivity as Niger’s new military leadership has consolidated its power. As a result, Tinubu and ECOWAS have lost credibility and assertiveness in the region.
The last visit by a German head of government to Nigeria was five years ago. Even back then, Chancellor Angela Merkel described the country as one of the most important in Africa. It is important “that we develop good relationships”. She announced collaborations, particularly in the agricultural and energy sectors, as well as the start of Volkswagen car production. However, the Wolfsburg-based company has now closed the assembly plant there again.
The Chancellor will travel on to Ghana on Monday evening.
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