It is the basic data of the situation that decides what is happening and what is going to happen, at least in the short and medium term. The most compelling of them is that the multiform majority that has supported the Government for a year does not want the right, PP and Vox, to take control before there are elections.
If it were true that it was about to sink, it is now clear that the Government has been saved. Its rival, the PP, is, on the other hand, in serious difficulties: it has made a fool of itself by trying to unseat Minister Ribera in Brussels, it is unable to cover up the disaster of the Mazón government in the Valencian Country and the voices are increasingly insistent which suggest that there are serious internal divergences in the party. Pedro Sánchez seems to dominate the situation while Alberto Núñez Feijóo sails aimlessly and taking on water.
Between increasingly less credible hoaxes, although there are many unwary people who want to believe them, probably because they are funnier than the truth, and the daily apocalyptic tone of the majority of the media, which are incapable of earning their bread simply by telling what happens, Spanish politics advances between one little number and another.
But in the party leaderships it is known that reality is very different from what their propagandists want public opinion to believe. And it is the basic data of the situation that decides what is happening and what is going to happen, at least in the short and medium term. The most compelling of them is that the multiform majority that has supported the Government for a year does not want the right, PP and Vox, to take control before there are elections.
The other, no less decisive, is that this right does not have enough parliamentary strength to overthrow the coalition government and that, no matter how many atrocities its leaders proclaim every day, it will not have it until the polls dictate otherwise. The possibility that some of the partners of the government majority would abandon it to support the right – before it was the PNV, until this Thursday afternoon it was Junts – has once again been undone. If the PP were in government, another rooster could crow.
It does not seem that the accusations that Víctor Aldama has just made against several PSOE leaders are going to change that starting scheme much. Nor does the inquisition against the wife of the President of the Government have any signs of becoming a solid and viable accusation, no matter how much Judge Peinado insists on initiating increasingly abstruse proceedings: one day someone will stop him, if not before. he retires
More disturbing is the case opened by the Supreme Court against the State Attorney General, no matter how much the common mortals find the arguments that Judge Marchena and his associates have made against him ridiculous and unsustainable. Because the antecedents, the one that had Judge Baltasar Garzón as a victim is the most terrible of all, suggest that in fights between magistrates cruelty and the pettiest interests can end up prevailing.
The recent and unpresentable exhaustive record of the attorney general’s offices indicates that this is where the shots could go and the Government is beginning to prepare for the worst. In any case, and even if it is a hard blow, Sánchez will not fall because of it. Continuing despite a conviction against Álvaro García Ortiz will not be an aesthetic solution, but in this senseless war that the right, political and judicial, has declared the Government, it is understandable that any of the weapons that the victim has at his disposal should be used. willingness to defend oneself.
Having seen what we have seen and waiting for new knocks that are undoubtedly being manufactured in the laboratories of the opposition, the only solid perspective that there is in the Spanish political panorama is that the legislature passes, surely among some scares and probably with some new budgets within of a few months, until new general elections take place. That is, at the earliest within a year or a year and a half. Only a dramatic worsening of the international situation could alter this forecast, which is based on the fact that none of the main actors on the Spanish scene want early elections. And the least, especially now, the PP.
Therefore, the political question that must be reflected on, whoever wants or should do so, is that of electoral perspectives. And in this context the element that seems most decisive, in any case much more than the relationship of forces between the PP and Vox, is the situation of the parties located to the left of the PSOE. Because, regardless of the result that the socialists may obtain in the future, the only possible formula for the left to continue governing is for the current coalition government to be repeated, with the appropriate adjustments (a possible pact with Esquerra for these purposes is , at this moment, a daydream).
And as things stand today, the strength of the parties located to the left of the PSOE seems clearly insufficient to renew that coalition. Not only because the polls say so, but because the blurring, if not the deepening, of these formations and particularly of the main one, Sumar, is palpable in the environment.
Izquierda Unida is where it has always been and so far it has not transmitted any sign of new motivations and initiatives that could allow it to make any leap forward. Podemos is stuck in a corner from which, however, its leaders seem to want to get out.
It is said that one of the reasons why Pedro Sánchez has wanted, and continues to want, to prolong the term as much as possible is precisely to give Sumar time to recover. It is impossible to predict whether that will happen or not. But it is equally evident that, beyond that, this space lacks any future, for itself and for the entire left, if there is no rapprochement between the different forces that compose it. Unity, even if only for electoral purposes.
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