Among the exotic indicators of the economy, there is one that has jumped into the red danger zone. This is the tie index. And, more or less, it works in the following way. More suits and ties in the office, bad news for the company and the economy. For whatever reason, when bosses fear that bad things are going to happen, they order employees to wear uniforms. Suit and tie, whatever may happen.
Coincidences with the economic cycle or by chance, the tie index usually passes as a good indicator. As good as the lipstick index. In 2010, when banks were falling like dominoes, the Swiss bank UBS imposed 49 page dress code. They even made recommendations about underwear, but, above all, they insisted on wearing a tie.
It must be recognized that the index is not precise, but as an indicator it has worked. Bankers before the 2008 financial crisis got carried away by the informal spirit and disheveled from the offices of the technology companies and the Casual Fridays appeared in their lives. Until there is a crisis in sight and it is time to adjust ties.
There are references to the index even in the fall of the legendary hedge funds LTCM in the nineties. Roger Lowenstein in his book When Genius Failedsays in his book that the fund’s offices had a relaxed atmosphere in clothing, but employees began to sense problems when suits and ties began to appear.
Dress rules have begun to relax after Covid and the return to the office, but for bankers there is almost a uniform to go to their jobs, with a tie. The index has gone crazy with JP Morgan’s intention to return its entire staff, some 300,000 employees worldwide, to the office five days a week. That means many and many more ties per day at the office. Bad sign, according to the tie index.
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