The palaces of Rome, centuries past, still speak of the identity of their tenants. The Quirinal was built in the 16th century as a second papal residence. With the fall of the Papal States and the unification of Italy, it became the seat of the monarchy and, after the constitutional referendum, it became the seat of the presidency of the Republic. But the ways, the silence, and the way in which the great decisions are made still remind us of the Vatican idiosyncrasy. The next three months once again expose the most passionate political ritual in Italy. The mother of all the institutional battles that will have to find a successor for Sergio Mattarella (80 years old) at the head of the Presidency of the Republic. The lace is very complicated. The names range from the prime minister, Mario Draghi, to Silvio Berlusconi, who already dreams out loud of closing his career at the head of state. But neither completely solves the problem: finishing the country’s reforms.
Italy is already in the white semester, the six months in which it is not allowed to dissolve the chambers and everything has a presidential password. The Quirinal game is open and will brand all Italian politics: in the short and long term. The name of the candidate, especially if Draghi is chosen, will determine the political line of the next seven years and the expiration of the current legislature. The problem is that the rise of the current prime minister to the Quirinal Hill would force either to find a replacement for him to finish the fifth year of the legislature at its most turbulent or to convince Mattarella to accept another term. Otherwise, early elections would have to be called, an operation that is not convenient for almost anyone at the moment and that would put at risk the reforms that the country is carrying out to ensure the smooth running of investments with European funds. The pools are open. But the staging of the decision, which will take place between the end of January and the beginning of February, will in any case be spectacular.
The members of the two chambers meet in Montecitorio (the Chamber of Deputies) on voting days. There are 950 parliamentarians to which are added the senators for life. All under rules that allow lengthening ad infinitum votes to reach an agreement and in which the necessary quorum decreases as the candidate’s election progresses unsuccessfully. In the first three, two thirds are needed: that is, 673 out of 1008 parliamentarians. From the fourth, serve only half plus one. That’s only when the candidates to be considered start to appear.
The name of the chosen one does not usually sound in the first scrutinies. Francesco Cossiga, Minister of the Interior during the kidnapping of Aldo Moro and Prime Minister from 1979 to 1980, is one of the two cases that contradict this unwritten rule (752 votes out of 977 voters). The other is Carlo Azeglio Ciampi (1999-2006), the model that is now invoked to promote Draghi: he was a banker and was Prime Minister and President with almost no continuity solution. The rest, such as Mattarella, Napolitano or Scalfaro (16th vote), curdled after many attempts. This circumstance makes the parties take the first votes as a poker game and propose extravagant names that go from television presenters or activists such as the doctor and founder of the NGO Emergency Gino Strada that will end up discarded: the so-called flag candidates.
Stefano Ceccanti, a PD deputy and constitutional expert, believes that “this time it is completely different.” “Normally there was a majority of the government that could choose alone. But if you have such a heterogeneous majority as now, you have to vote together to avoid problems in the Executive. If not, the parties that are left out could decide to withdraw their ministers. That is why now it would be important to do it in the first three scrutinies ”.
Draghi, almost everyone agrees, is the name with the greatest weight and prestige for the Quirinal. But his appointment worries many parliamentarians, who fear that his election will force them to call early elections and lose their seat. “No one will say it clearly. But that variable weighs enormously in the decision, ”says a deputy from the 5-Star Movement, on the verge of exhausting the two terms that the rules of his party do not allow to exceed.
Join EL PAÍS now to follow all the news and read without limits
Subscribe here
It also alarms the European Union, where it is expected that the reforms will be completed and the projects in which the 200,000 million euros of the recovery plan that have been assigned to Italy will be shielded. If Draghi were chosen for the Quirinal and the elections were avoided, a technician would have to be found to take the country to the polls. The problem, all the sources consulted believe, is that the year that remains will be turbulent, the parties will activate the electoral confrontation – it is likely that Matteo Salvini will decide to leave the Executive to mark his own profile – and it is feared that someone like the current Minister of Economy Daniele Franco, I may not be able to deal with it.
The only option that would allow Draghi to finish his job as prime minister and keep the options for the Quirinal Palace is to convince Mattarella to extend his term. It already happened with Giorgio Napolitano, but the current president does not see with good eyes twisting the Constitution for an idea that he already proposed to prohibit by law at the time. He doesn’t think another seven years are advisable, those who know him say. Is conviced. By age and by democratic health. But he also does not see with good eyes extending his mandate provisionally until the next elections, becoming a fix, explains a person who speaks with him. If the term of government of a president of the Republic is seven years, it is precisely so that it does not coincide with the cycles of Parliament.
The game is very complicated. There are no names at the height of Draghi to replace Mattarella, crucial in the last four years containing the populist gale that hit Italy. But, above all, no one agrees with all parties. The Minister of Justice, Marta Cartabia, is on the table: she would be the first woman. But its main supporters, the 5 Star Movement, now reject it after the justice reform that did not like it. Or the current head of Economy of the European Commission, Paolo Gentiloni. The last attempt could be made by proposing a two-year transition with Giuliano Amato, who was about to fill that position seven years ago before Renzi knocked him down. He was Silvio Berlusconi’s favorite, who now, at 85 years old, would like to occupy that position himself. His coalition partners (The League and Brothers of Italy) allow him to continue dreaming by whispering loyalty to him. Nobody in Italy, however, thinks he can do it. Starting in January, he too will be part of the ritual.
Follow all the international information at Facebook and Twitter, or in our weekly newsletter.
#Italy #prepares #battle #Quirinal