Blow after blow, the chess game between BBVA and Sabadell continues. And the market remains expectant, putting each player’s chips under the magnifying glass. The latest technical move launched last Thursday by the Basque bank, which lowered the minimum threshold for acceptance of the takeover bid to acquire Sabadell from 50.01% to 49.27%, would not be decisive for the success of the operationseveral analysis houses agree. Some of them do doubt the reason why the decision not to count treasury stock in this calculation was not made from the beginning, although BBVA made it clear that this modification arose after conversations with the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). Even while awaiting the Competition’s ruling, some analysts are convinced that the operation will only go ahead if the price improves. Today their proposal is to deliver a newly issued title for every 5.0196 Sabadell shares plus a cash payment of 0.29 euros. An option that the bank chaired by Carlos Torres now does not contemplate.
Sabadell had a spectacular 2024 on the stock market, appreciating almost 69%, thus earning the silver medal among the Ibex 35 values ​​that rose the most. And, in Alantra’s opinion, the Vallesan bank’s stock market rally has the potential to continue. “We expect the correlation with the BBVA share swap (and related Mexican volatility) to break once the market recognizes better value in Sabadell’s standalone history,” he said. In his opinion, the bank should improve its balance by 20% to attract shareholders to its takeover bid.
RBC Capital Markets also subordinates the success of the operation to a price increase: “We continue to believe that this deal will close, probably in the first half, and with some relatively minor corrections and a 10% increase in the offer priceHowever, JoaquÃn Robles, an independent analyst, believes that if BBVA finally decides to raise the price, it will do so after receiving the green light from the CNMC.
The Canadian investment bank does see it viable for it to succeed, but questions the introduction of this adjustment eight months after launching the operation. “It appears that the bank’s lawyers or bankers have drafted the text sloppily. The bank has clarified that the amendment does not reflect how close they believe a vote could actually be. There are no implications of the amendment regarding the need for new signatures or a delay in deadlines,” he added.
Nuria Alvarez, Renta 4 analyst, raised the same doubts: “It is possible that BBVA did not expect Sabadell to counteract its remuneration policy and that its decision to introduce the change came after Sabadell announced the dividend in September. Or in July , when Sabadell improved it. In the end, it is a tactical war of strategies.”
defensive maneuver
What is clear in the eyes of analysts is that BBVA’s decision is a defensive move to guard your back given the possibility that the Vallesano bank will launch share buyback programs, something that it has already dropped. “We believe that Sabadell could reactivate the buyback of 250 million euros that it stopped after BBVA presented its takeover bid last year during its general meeting of Shareholders between March and April,” JB Capital said.
Pending the annual results, the CEO of the Catalan bank, César González-Bueno, yesterday guaranteed Galician businessmen that “Sabadell is better than ever today and has not yet reached its highest point”, ensuring that the entity will “widely” exceed the benefits obtained in 2023 in 2024.
Investors showed quite a bit of indifference to Thursday’s technical movement, as indicated by bank quotes: BBVA fell 0.48% and Sabadell 0.20%. What the market is anxiously awaiting is the resolution of Competition or an improvement in the price.
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