The virus flu returns to its ‘normal’ pre-pandemic channels, although experts always emphasize the idea that no two flu seasons are the same. This year the arrival of the peak has been delayedwhich experts expect at the end of January, in about two or three weeks. After exceeding the epidemic threshold last week, the flu in Spain continues its escalation, testing the capacity of the health system for another year.
According to the data published this Thursday by the Carlos III Health Institute, the flu incidence rate continues to rise and is now at 62.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitantswhile last week they were 42.2. However, these figures are very far from the 163.7 that were recorded in the same week last year. The situation in hospitals is also intensifyingsince the hospitalization rate for flu is estimated at 4.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 2.5 the previous week.
“This year the flu epidemic arrives a little later than what we have seen in the last two or three years. I think we are getting back to the usual pre-pandemic flu times. The arrival of Covid completely displaced the flu virus during the first year and then slightly changed the timing of when it appeared and when peaks occurred. Now We are reaching the strongest moments of the epidemicbut it will probably be two or three weeks from now when we see the real peak,” he tells 20 minutes the epidemiologist and pediatrician Quique Bassat.
José María Molero, a specialist in Infectious Diseases at the Spanish Society of Family and Community Medicine (SemFYC), agrees with him, who also points out to this medium that this year the epidemic arrives “a little later” and predicts that it will last “until March”. The arrival of covid displaced other respiratory viruses and the flu, which is a markedly seasonal virus, created two waves two seasons ago, in December 2022 and between February and March 2023.
Molero explains that the current season began with the majority circulation of influenza B, although for the past month “it has been decreasing and is being replaced by virus A, which is the one that usually causes slightly more severe symptoms.” The influenza A “It is the one that is probably responsible for the maximum peak and is the one that is normally associated with more cases of infections,” he adds.
José María Eiros, director of the National Flu Center of Valladolid, a reference organization in Spain that has been in operation for 40 years, also estimates that “In about two weeks we could have flu activity substantially higher than the current one“, while remembering that “no two flu seasons are the same. Sometimes there are seasons with two periods of intensity with a silence between them. It is difficult to predict what the activity and maximum scope of the epidemic will be, but Because of the memory we have, we know that now it will get worse. It is what is conceivable“Eiros explains to 20 minutes.
The data published this Thursday correspond to the incidence detected during the first week of the year – from December 30 to January 5, 2025 -, in the middle of Christmas and when many of the population is away from their place of residence and far from their doctors. head. For this reason, the coordinator of the vaccine group of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (SEE), Ángela Domínguez, believes that they do not offer a completely real photo and that they will be the data for next week, corresponding to the first week after the holidays. Christmas, those that do will be “more reliable.” Like Bassat, he also predicts the peak of infections for “the second half of January”.
For Bassat, this year is “more bearable” because the flu does not coincide in circulation with the covid. According to this week’s data at the state level, the covid rate is 5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (while last week it was 3.9). Regarding the percentages of positivitythe flu is located in the 31.4% (compared to 23.8% the previous week), while for SARS-CoV-2 it is 1.1% (1.6% the previous week).
Regarding the rate of bronchitis and bronchiolitis -caused by RSV- in under 5 yearsthis decrease in the last week from 367.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to the current 272.4 cases. Positivity for respiratory syncytial virus remains at 13.4% (last week it was 13.7%). In setthe rate of respiratory infections nationwide is 639.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 562.9 last week) and ISCIII experts consider that the intensity of circulation is “low” since last September.
The most common flu symptoms presented this year are, according to data collected by the Carlos III Health Institute, the cough (in 80.6% of cases), the fever (74.8%), general malaise (72.5%), sore throat (61%) and nasal congestion (60.7%). “There is nothing that makes us think that this virus is more serious than other years. The logical thing is that it behaves like other years“says Molero. “Respiratory infections have not changed their generic clinical presentation much. This year’s flu is like all other flus. There are no big differences this year, it is a very classic flu and with the most typical symptoms,” Bassat adds along the same lines.
Low vaccination percentage
All the specialists consulted point out the importance of vaccination to avoid serious cases of flu, which are more likely in older people, people with chronic illnesses, or those who are immunocompromised. This year, Molero points out, the percentage of the vaccinated population is even lower than last season, which “was already lower compared to the year 2021-2022” and which is “below the objectives.” This leads to think that “It is foreseeable that we will have more serious cases than last year, unfortunately”adds the SemFYC spokesperson, who maintains that “protection is fundamental.”
Precisely this Wednesday it was published in the magazine European Respiratory Review a study carried out by the CEU San Pablo University, the Carlos III Health Institute, the National Flu Center of Valladolid and the 12 de Octubre Hospital in Madrid, in which the effectiveness of vaccination against influenza has been analyzed with data from more than 38 countries and 6.5 million patients, concluding that the vaccine reduces the risk of death by half. The meta-analysis, which includes 192 articles from various countries over the last 20 years, shows that the level of protection varies depending on the age group and the flu subtype.
“For example, the flu vaccine is effective in preventing infections against the H1N1 subtype of the influenza A virus and against the influenza B virus in all age groups, from children under 5 years of age to people over 65. The vaccine, although effective in children, offers somewhat less protection against infection in adults with H3N2 influenza viruses, but it is highly effective in preventing deathregardless of the type of flu virus that affects us,” as the authors explained in a press release.
One of the authors is José María Eiros, who recalls that “the vaccine not only helps prevent infection, and therefore transmission, but also reduces the severity of symptoms in those who get sick, reducing the chances of serious complications.” , such as pneumonia, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and, of course, deaths.
In addition to the vaccine, experts remember that the use of the face mask It is recommended when symptoms compatible with the flu or another respiratory virus occur to prevent its spread, as well as for vulnerable people as a means of self-protection when they are in closed and crowded environments such as a health center in times of viruses or an environment. of transportation. “We all have a certain responsibility when it comes to not exposing othersespecially the weakest ones,” recalls Eiros.
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