2024 broke the curse of even years that the market had suffered since 2018 (the Ibex closed with a rise of 15%), and although in the early stages of Thursday it seemed that an old custom was also going to be broken on the first trading day of the year, finally Wall Street pulled the car and the European stock markets closed positively. The Ibex 35 ends with a rise of 0.71% in this first session (although it fell 1.2% intraday), and are already nine consecutive years that the national plaza has ended the first day of the course with profits.
Red dyed the main stock markets of the Old Continent until the opening of the American market, which at the European close saw a rise of 0.30% and thus broke with the bad streak that predominated in the last week of 2024, and thus broke with the bad streak that predominated in the last week of 2024, although a little later it returned to negative territory with a slight correction of 0.21%. Initial jobless claims were the only macro data of any scope released Thursday, and reached an eight-month low, confirming the strength of a US economy that wonders how far the economy will go. Trump’s pro-business and tax incentive policy.
“At the beginning of the year, analysts tend to be quite optimistic: there are pretty strong year-on-year earnings forecasts,” explains Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, to Bloomberg. “Even if we don’t get to 20% earnings growth for the Nasdaq, as analysts might suggest, if it’s just 15%, the markets are likely to do well,” the expert adds.
Already in clue In Europe, the banks are the ones that especially weighed down the Ibex 35, with falls of around 2% (which exceeded 3.5% mid-session) for Banco Santander and BBVA, which were at the bottom of the table . On the other hand, renewables – following in the footsteps of Stock Market Dogs with which they ended 2024 – ended the first day as the most bullish.
“European stock markets start the year with a mediocre tone, with a dull mood awaiting a difficult month,” they say from BloombergIntelligence. “Equities on both sides of the Atlantic may remain stagnant, vulnerable to a list of short-term risks,” he explains in statements collected by BI analyst Jan-Patrick Barnert. “The Fed needs to further clarify its rate path, while the outlook for the global economy is also blurry. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the euro zone remains negative and appears to be heading downwards,” he completes.
From BI they point to the Trump administration’s potential tariffs and China’s sluggishness as factors “that may continue to weigh on key European sectors such as luxury and automobiles, while France and Germany also pose political risks.” In this sense, the survey carried out among 20 strategists that was published last month Bloomberg pointed out that the Stoxx 600 will close 2025 at 535 points, that is, 5% above current levels. And, although investors in the BofA European survey were quite optimistic about the region’s values, they opted for US equities.
The British market (the Ftse 100) ended the first day as the most bullish, with a rise of almost 1%. By sectors, energy and electricity companies were not only the most successful in Spain, but also in Europe, and the basic resources segment ended the first day of the year in third position, with an increase of just over 1%. In contrast, the automotive and banking sectors were the ones that fell the most within the Stoxx 600, with falls of just over half a point in both cases.
The boost of technology
The S&P 500 is up more than 50% since the start of 2023, driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven and huge excitement around artificial intelligence. Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz & Co, says tech stocks “deserve these valuation premiums when looking at return on capital and free cash flow generation.” “The AI story is going to spread to the rest of the market, meaning earnings growth will be supported not only by the Magnificent Seven, but also by other sectors of the S&P 500.”
All in all, Thursday’s day was also marked by the results of Tesla, which for the first time in more than a decade presented a drop in annual vehicle sales, despite a boost at the end of 2024 that sent deliveries to a record in the fourth quarter. The company led by Elon Musk sold 1.79 million vehicles last yearthe company reported this Thursday, a figure slightly lower than that of 2023 and also below the analysts’ consensus estimate. After this blow, The stock fell almost 6% at the close of the European market. However, other technological heavyweights such as Nvidia or Amazon sustained the increases within the American indices.
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