The French extreme right has taken a decisive step this Sunday on its long path to democratically conquering power. The victory of the National Regroupment (RN) in the first round of the legislative elections places it as the favorite to become the first parliamentary force after the second round, on July 7.
But it is not clear whether Marine Le Pen’s party will have enough seats to appoint a prime minister and form a government. Initial projections for the second round put it a few dozen seats short of the 289-seat threshold for an absolute majority.
Everything will be decided in the next five days of campaigning, a sprint which will determine whether France, and with it Europe, will make a U-turn. A merger of parties opposed to the RN, from the radical left to the moderate right, could curb the party’s ambitions and prevent Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s right-hand man and her candidate for prime minister, from heading the next French government.
These elections, unexpectedly called by the president, Emmanuel Macron and marked by the highest participation since 1981, close to 70%, have the effect of an earthquake in France. For the first time, a nationalist and Eurosceptic party with roots in the xenophobic and anti-Semitic extreme right wins a legislative election.
The left is emerging as the main bloc against Marine Le Pen’s RN. The formations linked to Macron, dominant since 2017 in the National Assembly, remain in third position, lose all the power accumulated in these years, and are the biggest victims of the president’s decision.
The RN has obtained 34.2% of the votes, according to the Ifop institute’s estimate for the TF1 channel at the close of the polls, almost double its result in the last legislative elections, two years ago. In second place was the left-wing coalition New Popular Front, with 29.1%, three points more than in 2022.
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The pro-Macronist Ensemble (Together) ticket would be far behind, in third place, with 21.5%, about three points less than in the last legislative elections. The Republicans, the traditional right-wing party sister of the Spanish PP, would get 10%.
Ifop’s estimates are similar to those of other polling institutes, although the percentages may vary throughout the night.
Macron, in a written statement published at the closing of the schools, called for “a great clearly democratic and republican union” before the RN. He also defended the controversial parliamentary dissolution and the early elections. “The high turnout,” he said, “reflects the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the will to clarify the political situation.”
“Democracy has spoken,” declared Le Pen. “Now we need an absolute majority so that in eight days Emmanuel Macron can appoint Jordan Bardella as prime minister.”
The legislative elections in France are actually 577 simultaneous elections in 577 constituencies to elect 577 deputies. The two most voted in the first round are not classified for the second round, as in the presidential elections, but rather the candidates who in the first round exceed 12.5% of the total number of those registered on the electoral roll.
Participation close to 70%
The participation close to 70% implies that there will be dozens of constituencies in which the second round will be contested between three candidates. This is what is known as triangular.
In the first round of the previous legislative elections, participation was 47.5%. So there were only 8 districts with triangular ones. On July 7 there could be almost 300, according to some estimates.
The triangular ballots disperse the vote, which could facilitate the election of the RN candidates, who are in the lead. But if the candidates with the fewest votes withdraw to concentrate the vote against the far right, Le Pen’s candidates could have a more difficult time achieving an absolute majority.
Hence the significance of Macron’s quick statement, calling for a front against the extreme right. It remains to be seen how it will come to fruition.
Some Macronists had already indicated in previous days that they would withdraw their candidates if the candidate of the New Popular Front over the RN candidate was a socialist, an ecologist or even a communist. But not if he belonged to the more radical La France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which dominates the leftist coalition.
In the next few hours it will become clearer whether the so-called republican front is really resurrected, the French form of the cordon sanitaire that until now has prevented Le Pen’s party from coming to power. After the unquestionable electoral success of this party, in any case, French politics has entered a new phase, that of a country with a national-populist movement that occupies a central place in this society.
Everything has happened in a few days. These have been three of the most intense weeks in French politics in recent times, since on the evening of June 9, Macron announced by surprise the dissolution of the National Assembly, where the parties supporting him were in the majority, and the calling of early legislative elections. The decision, in response to the electoral debacle of the Macronists in the European elections and the victory of the extreme right, precipitated a chain reaction in the parties. The Macronists, disconcerted and in many cases irritated by the decision of their leader, launched a desperate campaign, hiding Macron from the posters. The traditional right of the Republicans (LR) imploded when its president, Éric Ciotti, left with Le Pen’s RN. The heterogeneous French left managed against all odds, in less than a week, to reach an agreement to present single candidates and a common program.
This campaign has opened a new chapter of recomposition of the French partisan landscape, which began in 2017 with the emergence of Macron and conquest of power. From here comes a France with three blocs: a broad nationalist and eurosceptic right; a robust left that at least aspires to be the main opposition force; and a greatly reduced central block. Macronism may have signed his death certificate tonight.
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