Ursula von der Leyen negotiates personally but awaits the outcome of the vote in France
The situation for appointments in Brussels and Strasbourg is “very intricate” to use the expression of a true Melonian. On the one hand the Prime Minister wants to keep the promise made to the voters not to govern with the left and on the other she does not want to be left out of the game.
For this reason she is furious with Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron who already at the G7 in Puglia laid the foundations for a new Ursula majority – Popular, Socialists and Democrats, liberals extended to the Greens -, excluding the right, but it is also true that the outgoing president of the Commission seeking reconfirmation knows perfectly well that it is the German Chancellor and the French President have emerged with broken bones from the European elections and their power to influence the balance of the EU has decidedly diminished.
Yesterday ad Affaritaliani.it Antonio Tajani, secretary of Forza Italia and member of Ppethe main group in the new EuroChamber and which gives the cards, has relaunched the idea of the majority which in 2017 led him to the presidency of the European Parliament or Popular, liberal and conservative. “It’s difficult, but there’s no harm in trying,” said the deputy prime minister and foreign minister. The truth – both sources very close to the prime minister and sources from the Democratic Party and Forza Italia explain to Affaritaliani.it – is that nothing will be decided before the outcome of the legislative elections in France (first round on 30 June and second round on 7 July) . The first meeting of the new EU Parliament will only be in mid-July anyway.
If despite the advance to the European Championships of the Rassemblement National of Jordan Bardella And Marine Le Pen and the agreement with a piece of post-Gaullists (not Nicolas Sarkozy), Macron will still have the majority in the national assembly in Paris, perhaps with an agreement with other center and center-left forces, at which point we will go straight towards the encore of Ursula cith the formula of the last five years which effectively excludes not only Matteo Salvini’s League (this is obvious) but also the Ecr group of Brothers of Italy.
And in this case finding an Italian commissioner appreciated by the majority of the EU Parliament will be very difficult and a prestigious technician like him will certainly be needed Elisabetta Belloni, Fabio Panetta or Roberto Cingolani. But if the right were to prevail in the French elections (strongly supported by the media of the group led by Vincent Bolloré), a hypothesis that cannot be ruled out at all according to the polls, with Bardella or Le Pen prime minister and Macron lame duck (borrowing a typical expression from the United States of America) at that point Von der Leyen would shift the axis of his majority to the right and therefore the hypothesis made by Tajani could materialise.
Of course it won’t be easy but everything will depend on the agenda and the program. If Ursula is with the S&D and the Greens, go ahead with the green deal and ultra-political policiesenvironmentalists. Otherwise, if it moves to the right after the vote for the French national assembly, the program will have to be completely revised as requested by Meloni himself. Negotiations continue in the secret rooms of Brussels but everyone, led by Ursula, is waiting to understand how the French will express themselves before making a final decision on the new political balance at the top of the EU.
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