Although this phenomenon seems extreme, Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford, explains that it could simply be due to natural weather variability and that more research is needed to know if it is caused by climate change. However, although winds are not seasonal, climate change is increasing the risk of late- and early-season wildfires in California.
“Not only is this an episode of particularly strong winds, but also an especially dry season in early January,” explains Diffenbaugh. Southern California’s wet season, which runs from October to April, has seen record rainfall, following one of the driest autumns on record. As precipitation becomes more variable due to climate change, the intersection between the windy and dry seasons is increasing: “We’re seeing a significant number of hotter, drier, windier days, especially in Southern California,” Trudeau suggests.
Dry conditions, warm temperatures and fuel
To compound the problem, above-normal rainfall was recorded in the previous two years, which led to the growth of vegetation and foliage in mountainous regions: “That set the stage, all that vegetation is more flammable, so we’re seeing easier, faster-spreading fires,” says Moreland. Marlon comments that the proximity of people and structures compounds the risks: “Houses intermingled with vegetation is what is so problematic because, in this case, the houses provide much of the fuel.”
Furthermore, all these events occur in a context of higher annual temperatures due to climate change: “A slight increase in temperature can cause fires to intensify rapidly,” adds Marlon. For his part, Diffenburgh compares it to a baseball game, climate change does not have to make a home run to affect the number of runs scored: “If you put runners on base, it increases the impact of the hit.” In this case, the bases were loaded with dry conditions, warm temperatures and fuel. The winds were only there to beat.
With no rain in sight, many regions remain vulnerable: “Southern California relies on the winter months for its wet season. If beneficial precipitation doesn’t occur this time of year, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the spring and summer heading into 2025. Your place, its location, its timing, its severity, its size, the whole nature of fire in a warmer climate is different,” Marlon maintains. Furthermore, he comments that all of this is happening in the context of an incoming president who calls climate change a hoax. “It’s really alarming, this leadership vacuum just when we most need to protect people and prepare.”
As fires become more frequent, severe and unpredictable, better climate preparedness and adaptation is crucial to mitigating future disasters. Local organizations and governments are working to protect homes and communities, and advances in fire-resistant building materials; More aggressive fuel management programs and improved early warning systems can make a difference: “We should keep this in mind as development expands and continues to encroach on these places that burn naturally regularly,” he concludes. Marlon.
Article originally published in WIRED. Adapted by Alondra Flores.
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