“No vaccinated person who has had contact with a positive must end up in quarantine anymore”: Matteo Bassetti, director of the infectious disease clinic at the San Martino Hospital in Genoa, explains it this way. In the public debate these days this proposal represents a small “atomic bomb”, in fact it is.
Thus, in this principle, it can be said that the heart of the “Bassetti theorem” is summarized. This is – perhaps – the only way we have to avoid committing suicide with the infinite multiplication of pandemic prevention measures, the only possibility not to force millions of Italians to exclude themselves from civil life (for no reason), the only way to do not reduce yourself to fighting the virus with old (and therefore less effective) weapons.
But let’s try to understand how, and above all why. It’s been four days now since the Ligurian infectious disease specialist illustrated his idea for the first time in a “shock-interview” at Corriere della Sera. When I hear him, to ask him about the reactions he has received, he is enthusiastic: “The best I could imagine”.
Today even one of the most rigid governors against the no-vax, Massimo Fedriga supports his proposal from the columns of The Republic: “We abolish the quarantine for those who have taken the third dose”. But it must also be said that the Scientific Technical Committee for now niche: “Reducing the time of isolation is fine – explain the government advisers – canceling it completely is not”. Of course, the battle has only just begun.
The infectious doctor sighs, explaining his idea to TPI: “There is nothing subversive. These are the conclusions that the main regulatory authorities in America have already reached. I believe that, I hope in a short time, the Technical Scientific Committee will also reach these same conclusions. The reason is simple: there is no alternative ”.
And here is the heart of the proposal which, as Bassetti explains it, is this: “They are not opinions, it is mathematics: the scenario we have reached is that of 100,000 new infections a day. An enormity. Since currently for each contagion there are at least ten people who end up in isolation, from close relatives, to parents, to siblings, to colleagues, the result is inevitable “.
Which one, I ask. And Bassetti: “Soon we should have a couple of million Italians locked up at home, in quarantine. An army of inmates destined to grow by the hour: an entire country blocked ”. Also blocked on the logistical level, says the infectious disease specialist: “It would happen, for the worse, what has already happened in England. So I also ask my colleagues on the Scientific Technical Committee some subdued questions: when we get to that point, who will cook the bread? Who will distribute the food? Who will drive the buses? Who will help the sick in hospitals? We cannot afford two million Italians confined to home without symptoms ”.
Question: how do you explain to the reader that until yesterday it was right to pay these prices and now not? Bassetti sighs: “There are two main reasons, and they are also very simple to understand. The first: a year ago we did not have mass vaccines and today we do. The second: the Omicron variant – adds Bassetti – behaves in a completely different way compared to the Delta variant, and reacts differently to the vaccine. It is more contagious, less deadly for the vaccinated, and – concludes the infectious disease specialist – within a few days it will become the main variant “.
When? “At the end of January 2022, which is like saying tomorrow”. For this Bassetti thinks that the time has come to consider the pandemic with new eyes. “Christmas 2021 is a completely different story from that of Christmas 2020 – he explains – we cannot continue to implement the same measures as a year ago, when no one was vaccinated. We cannot continue chasing the virus without updating our containment strategies to the new situation ».
First theme: contact tracking. “With the spread of Omicron, as we have seen, it is jumping. Under the conditions that have arisen, the quarantine should be reserved only for positives. It makes no sense to close family members and close contacts at home, if they are in health, if they are asymptomatic and if they are vaccinated “.
Second crucial issue, tampons: “We must immediately put an end to tamponade. Get used to the idea that vaccinated people only have to do it if and when they have symptoms “. The explanation is this: “A myth of false safety about tampons is being created, starting from the unvaccinated: but in reality they represent only an instant diagnosis, a snapshot of a moment”. Not only antigenic tampons, therefore, but also molecular ones: “In these days of celebration I am witnessing crazy shows: people who buy antigenic swabs on the internet, and dedicate themselves to do-it-yourself tampons at home. Endless files. Reagents that are in short supply. Here – smiles Bassetti – this is the best way to arrive at two inevitable outcomes: false negatives and the boom in unconscious infections ».
On the contrary, however, the Bassetti theorem has a precise objective: to arrive at an “endemic” phase of coexistence with the virus.
“Just take a walk in the lanes. Since Omicron appeared in Italy – on November 26 – the infection in vaccinated people is mainly producing mild symptoms: colds, coughs, fever “.
And here is the point: “As long as this is the scenario, and as long as this is the prevailing variant, we must get used to considering, from the point of view of prophylaxis, that Omicron should be treated, in vaccinated, as a bad flu”. That is: “Those who are sick stay at home, while their families, as long as they have no symptoms, lead a normal life. We have arrived at the absurdity – adds the infectious disease specialist – of relatives who remain in prison for a long time, even after both the first infected and themselves are completely cured of the disease “.
And that is why the other crucial piece is the revision of the system of “color regions”. Bassetti explains: “Obviously, they must be kept, but by changing the parameters for determining the color. The restrictive measures – he observes – should be limited to smaller areas: at the provincial and sometimes even municipal level “.
The last key theme, the statistics: “If everything I say comes true – observes Bassetti – the total number of hospitalizations for Covid becomes a misleading number. In the new account – adds the infectious specialist – only those suffering from respiratory insufficiency or indications of Sars-CoV-2 pneumonia should be calculated ”. That is: “It no longer makes sense to calculate mild cases or the positivity of those who are in hospital for other pathologies but become positive”.
The heart of this reasoning, however, is that the Bassetti theorem cannot be applied to no-vax. «Whoever does not get immunized risks – observes Bassetti – but unfortunately he does not do it only at his own risk. It takes up resources, produces unnecessary costs, clogs up hospitals. A vaccine costs the state 20 euros, but every day of intensive care costs 6,000. A monoclonal treatment, on behalf of the health service, costs 1500 euros ”.
Another paradox: “They tell us that we are for vaccines because we would all be slaves of Big Pharma and dedicated to protecting its profit – smiles Bassetti – but in reality it is exactly the opposite”. Meaning what? “For Big Pharma – and here the doctor smiles bitterly – no-vaxes are literally a gold mine. Treatments, therapies, endless hospitalizations, all supported by tons of drugs. All charged to the national health service “.
Another clarification: “With this Omicron variant, for all that we have explained – adds the infectious disease specialist – the unvaccinated will soon end up almost all infected. There is no escape. While the first studies confirm that, among those who received the three doses, only 5-6% can contract the disease “.
We have come to the end. The notebook is full of notes. It is evident that “the Bassetti theorem” produces a battle on two fronts. On the one hand with the no-vax, who denounce being persecuted. But on the other hand also with that part of the scientific world that would like, in the name of the principle of maximum precaution, to remain attached to the old procedures. Smile: “We can’t afford it. If I find myself living under guard – says Bassetti a TPI – it is precisely because I am paying a price, even a personal one, in the battle against the obtuseness and stupidity of those who deny the disease. But don’t you find – concludes Bassetti – that worse than this there is only the idea of not changing our strategy at all, just while we are fighting a virus that changes everything from season to season? ”.
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