Europe likes to see itself as a mediator between the superpowers USA and China. The political scientist Eberhard Sandschneider explains in an interview why he thinks this is a misjudgment.
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping – for the first time in almost a year. Is there reason to hope that relations will improve?
It is important that the meeting between Biden and Xi takes place at all. Only in personal conversations can the necessary atmosphere be created to discuss major differences. But no one should have false hopes. The meeting will not change American technology policy or China’s policy toward Taiwan.
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Why not? If at all, then probably at a meeting between the two heads of state.
The relationships are simply too strained. Unfortunately there is a big risk. Both sides are playing with fire and at some point – even unintentionally by accident – someone could burn their fingers. The military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait are highly dangerous. We could inadvertently slide into a military confrontation at any time. I’m afraid we are in a situation like before the First World War, I see a lot of sleepwalkers.
So you should save yourself the meeting?
On the contrary, that is exactly why the conversation between Biden and Xi is so important. Talks, especially between the military, must be resumed. This is vital in the event of a crisis. In this respect, there are currently signs of a slight de-escalation. But that doesn’t change the basic conflict: China is marching forward full of self-confidence on its path to achieving its supposed place in the sun, and the United States is trying to cast as much shadow as possible on this path.
We are talking about China and the USA. Where does that leave Europe?
We mustn’t fool ourselves. Europe plays no role at all here. Both Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU Commission President von der Leyen are completely wrong here with their flowery words about the multipolar world. A realistic look shows that Europe has long since lost touch in the technological race between China and the USA. The same threatens us in terms of industrial policy.
Europe’s deceptive self-image: mediator between China and the USA
Europe sees itself as a mediator between the two superpowers.
I actually hear hope from many Chinese delegations that the Europeans could be something of a balancing element between the USA and China. But that is a misplaced hope. Europe is lagging behind and plays no significant role.
Why is that?
I fear that the Europeans don’t want to and can’t anymore. For years I have been hearing and reading that Europe should speak with one voice. Yes, Europe could actually play a role if it got its act together. But Europe doesn’t. We are experiencing Europe’s decline in power politics, which many in this country simply deny and therefore do nothing to change.
How do we get out of this situation?
A first step would be the sober realization that it won’t work against China, just as it wouldn’t work against the USA. We will have to learn to cooperate with both without repeating stupid empty phrases: partners, competitors and systemic rivals – most of those who keep saying this don’t even know what’s behind it, let alone how to translate it into practical politics should implement.
But isn’t the “partners, competitors and systemic rivals” approach exactly the middle position that makes Europe important?
These empty formulations are not enough. This is not a pragmatic policy in the world of the 21st century, where unfortunately many corners are on fire. If Germany and Europe want to survive technologically, scientifically and economically, we will not be able to ignore the largest market of the future. This is China. Europe will have to come to terms with this.
So again, what can we do?
We have to stop repeating the mistakes we have been making for 20 years. We must stop waiting for convergence with China. Instead, we should finally realize that China will not become like us. China will not easily be integrated into our rules. And above all, we must learn that China cannot be contained or taught from outside. If Foreign Minister Baerbock started to see that, a lot would be gained.
Eberhard Sandschneider was Professor of Chinese Politics and International Relations at the Free University of Berlin from 1998 to 2020. From 2003 to 2016 he was also Otto Wolff Director of the Research Institute of the German Society for Foreign Policy. He is now a partner at the consulting firm “Berlin Global Advisors”.
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