The metadata reveals that the escalation was planned. A gross and dramatic mistake of Pasechnyk and Pushilin, pro-Russian leaders of Luhansk and Donetsk: posting on Telegram, which keeps all the hourly data. Pushilin records at 11.07 on Wednesday, but explicitly says “today, February 18”
The man speaking in the video is Leonid Pasechnyk. He is the head of the Russian occupation administration in the occupied part of the Luhansk region. On Friday, February 18, he posted a video on his social networks and those of the “republic” in which he orders the “evacuation” of all the citizens of the self-styled pro-Russian republic (about 2.2 million): “Dear residents of the republic! Companions! Friends! Contrary to common sense and international agreements, the enemy continues to concentrate manpower and heavy equipment along the entire line of contact. At the moment, the enemy has already formed an impressive strike force. According to intelligence, the Ukrainian aggressor has plans not only to carry out provocations on the contact line, but to organize a deep breakthrough in the depths of the territory of our Republic ».
The voice is solemn, the expression grave: «We are ready to defend our families, our homes, our land. I have already given all the necessary orders to the People’s Militia of the LPR, to the police forces of the Republic. In order to prevent casualties among the civilian population, I invite the residents of the republics who do not have mobilization orders, as well as are not involved in the life support of social and civil infrastructures, to leave for the territory of the Russian Federation as soon as possible ».
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However, there is a problem in the video: several osint analysts have observed that the metadata and date of registration have been left and, to put it in the words of one of them, Serhii Sternenko, “According to the metadata of this” evacuation “video, the video was recorded at least 2 days prior to publication.” This has also been independently confirmed by The print.
In other words, this means that the bombing of 17 February denounced by the Russians – the one that would have triggered the escalation and, as a “response”, also the mortar rounds by the pro-Russian occupiers on a Stanytsia Luhanska kindergarten, with the wounding of three teachers – just like the forced displacement of people from the occupied Donbas to Russia, is a pre-planned operation by the Russian occupiers from at least two days earlier. If this is Putin’s casus belli, it is one of the most blatantly and clumsily manipulated casus belli in history.
The examination of the video was repeated by several well-recognized osint analysts, because no one wanted to believe something so distinctive and unintelligent. Among them there is also Aric Toler of Bellingcat, who has absolutely no doubts about the results of the analysis, despite having started with a certain skepticism, like everyone else, because it seemed incredible: “The head of the LNR has published a video on the evacuation on the state news, but the metadata shows that the file was created two days ago ». Even if the metadata of a video are hidden, Telegram – where the pro-Russians have published – is one of those social networks that, notoriously, keeps them. And so it becomes a mine for further discoveries that tell us a lot about the real strategy of the Russians, and of the territories occupied by pro-Russian administrations.
The Kremlin obviously tries to minimize the gravity of this evidence. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that he was unaware of the evacuation plans in Donbas: “I don’t know what’s happening in Pushilin. I don’t know what’s going on over there. ‘ But also according to other discoveries osint doubts about Moscow’s intentions rise, to put it mildly. And other videos are being studied in these hours.
Despite what the metadata unequivocally shows, in one of the announcements posted on Telegram, the other pro-Russian leader, the head of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin, also explicitly says “today, February 18”. But he is recording on February 16th. According to officials in Donbas, more than 700,000 displaced people will move to Russia.
Basically, from the analysis of several posts on Telegram, which bear the publication date of February 17, it turns out that both Pushilin and Pasechnyk created the video exactly at the same time as February 16: 11.07 am Then, to make incontrovertible their mistake, they published the videos, from two different devices, in two different cities. On two different channels at the same time. Obviously the osint community is horrified by the inexperience of this tragic genius that speaks of a totally artificial and preordained war. And many other analyzes are taking place in these hours, this story is not over.
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