2024 finally breaks the curse of even years that the markets have suffered since 2018. The year puts the finishing touch on what has also been one of the best years not only of the last decade, but also of this century. The S&P 500 signs its fifth best annual balance since 2000 and Europe (burdened by French behavior) closes its tenth best record of the century. Nationally, 2024 is also for the Ibex 35 its tenth best year of increases of the century.
The year will be remembered for being the year in which the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve began the path of lowering rates; also in which Trump returned to the White House or the Chinese Government was forced to launch stimulus plans to reactivate its economy. In the summer, the drums of recession in the United States resounded again and spread panic in the market. Finally the fears were just that and the stock markets returned to the upward path that had marked the path for the rest of the year.
And, with all that backdrop, North American technology has once again shown its best. The Nasdaq 100 is established as the most bullish index of 2024, with an annual revaluation that is close to 30%. And, it does so based on the strong rise that some of The Magnificent Seven (together, they monopolize an important part of the weight of the index) such as Nvidia, Tesla or Meta (all advances of more than 70% are noted), although the rest of Magnificent (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft) all rise more than 15%.
The same happens with the S&P 500, which has also achieved gains in the stock market of more than 20% since it began this year. The main selective of Wall Street signs a rise of 25% in the year. However, if the equal-weighted index is taken, this increase is diluted to just under 12% due to the strong weight that they constitute The Magnificent Seven in the American market. Even so, The last time it rose this much was in 2021, when it recorded gains of 26.9%. Along with this year, there have only been three other years since the beginning of the century that have surpassed the performance of 2024: in 2013 (29.6%), 2019 (28.9%) and 2003 (26.4%).
During this exercise, Both North American market indices have reached historical highswhich are currently set at 22,096 points in the case of the Nasdaq 100 and at 6,090 points in the case of the S&P. All forecasts indicate that 2025 will be a year of new advances for both selectives: the consensus of analysts that includes Bloomberg estimates double-digit increases.
Despite the scare of the summer (which led the Japanese stock market to sign its worst session in almost 40 years, collapsing 12%), the Nikkei closes 2024 as the third most advanced selective among the main ones in the world, with a rise of somewhat more than 19%. For her, experts set an upward trend of 13% for next year. Without leaving the Asian continent, the Hang Seng and the CSI 300 are also experiencing the greatest advances, of 17.6% and 16.6% respectively in 2024. More than half of the rise was achieved following the Politburo’s announcement of a package of stimuli (in September) that has been expanding in recent weeks.
In Europe, the Dax is finally crowned as the most bullish index, with an increase that reaches 19%. For part of the year, the German stock market had competed with the Ibex 35 for this European reign, although finally the declines in the Spanish index gave the German selective the lead. It should be noted that the Dax has also reached new historical highs this year, which currently stands at 20,426 points. Experts believe that the Dax has the potential to continue its rise by an additional 13% in 2025.
Despite everything, the Ibex 35 manages to position itself as the second most bullish index on the continent, with an annual revaluation of 14.4%. This is also the second year that it has managed to post consecutive gains, after the increases in 2023. It has not achieved such a long annual bullish streak for a decade, when it registered increases in both 2013 and 2014.
During this year, the Spanish selective has managed to reach the level of 12,000 points at which it had not been listed since 2010. Now, the Ibex closes 2024 at around 11,500 points, but analysts already point to 2025 It will be the year of 13,000 points. Specifically, they estimate that the national index will close the next year at 13,390 points, which means leaving an upward potential for the next 12 months of 16%. By upward trend for 2025, only the Hang Seng stands out above the Ibex 35, which has a potential of 25%, according to experts.
The EuroStoxx is, in fact, one of the few indices of the Old Continent that does not achieve a double-digit increase in 2024. It does not achieve this due to the punishment accumulated by the French stock market, the only one among the main European ones that will end the year negative and which brings together some of the largest companies in Europe. The political uncertainty and the financial situation in France added to the crisis accumulated by the luxury sector (the one that has the most weight in the Parisian market) due to the weakness of the Chinese economy (its main client) have been the burden of the Cac 40, which accumulates losses of 3% in 2024.
The Spanish winners of 2024
Banking and Inditex are once again, once again, the great supports for the rise of the Ibex 35, although in 2024 the winner of winners is IAG. The Spanish-British airline doubles its market value in 2024, recording an increase of almost 105%. It is the most bullish year ever recorded by the company on the stock market and means adding almost 8.9 billion euros to its market capitalization.
Despite the 100 basis points that the ECB has cut rates this year, the slowdown in these cuts has once again supported banking entities and up to four of the five Ibex banks are among the most bullish this year: Banco Sabadell, Unicaja, CaixaBank and Bankinter achieved increases of 67.7%, 42.3%, 39.8% and 29.7% respectively.
2024 has also been the great year for Inditex. The textile giant has broken its all-time highs during this year and on numerous different occasions, which currently stand at 55.98 euros per share. With an increase of 27% in the year, its market value has increased by almost 31,800 million and the Spanish company has once again revalidated itself as the most valuable company in the entire history of the Spanish market (its capitalization has exceeded 174,470 million of euros).
LinkedinBeloud
#Wall #Street #closes #year #century #Europe #tenth
