The UN lowered this Wednesday from 4% to 3.1% its growth forecast for the world economy this year as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, which is aggravating the problem of inflation and threatening the fragile recovery from the covid-19 crisis.
In a review of its economic outlook report, the United Nations estimates that the world’s main economies will be clearly affected by the conflict and will progress less than expected: 2.6% in the case of the United States, 2.7 % in the European Union (EU) and 4.5% in China.
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In addition, he forecasts that Ukraine’s economy will sink between 30% and 50% in 2022 as a result of the war and that Russia’s will contract by 10.6% due to the harsh sanctions that have been imposed in response to the war. invasion of the neighboring country.
“The war in Ukraine, in all its dimensions, is triggering a crisis that is also devastating for global energy markets, disrupting financial systems and exacerbating extreme vulnerabilities for the developing world,” the secretary-general said in a statement. of the UN, António Guterres.
The Portuguese called for “rapid and decisive” measures to ensure a constant supply of food and energy to the market by lifting restrictions on exports, directing surpluses and reserves to those who need them and addressing the rise in the price of food for curb market volatility.
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The war in Ukraine, in all its dimensions, is triggering a crisis that is also devastating for global energy markets
Among the world’s large economies, the war will be felt especially in the EU, where the United Nations forecasts growth of 2.7% this year, compared to 3.9% calculated last January, but also in the US. , which goes from 3.5% to 2.6%.
The impact will be somewhat less in China, where the UN forecasts that the economy will grow by 4.5%, seven tenths less than before the Russian invasion.
For the developing economies as a whole, the report calculates a slight decline, up to 4.5% growth, although some specific regions worsen more compared to previous estimates, as is the case of Mexico and Central America, where growth of 2.2% is expected, far from the 3.4% that the UN saw last January.
Behind the slowdown in the global economy is largely the rise in inflation, which according to the United Nations will increase this year by 6.7% worldwide, more than double the average seen between 2010 and 2020 and with a particularly important rise in food and energy prices.
The specific case of Latin America
A) Yes, the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.1% this yearaccording to the new estimate presented by the United Nations.
The UN cut its calculation for Latin America by one tenth compared to the one it made in January, when it already warned of a clear slowdown in the region, which in 2021 grew by close to 7%.
“The outlook in Latin America and the Caribbean remains complicated. The war in Ukraine, rising inflationary pressures and declining macroeconomic policy support represent major headwinds to recovery“, the organization said in a new report.
The economic slowdown in the United States and China – key trading partners for the region – and higher borrowing costs also dampen growth prospects, according to the UN.
Despite this, the downward revision in the Latin American case is much less than that announced by the United Nations for the world’s main economies.
The main reason is that in January the organization already saw several factors that suggested a slowdown in growth in Latin America that was not seen in other regions, where a more important advance was expected.
Now, the situation is a little more complicated, especially due to the sharp rise in energy and food prices, fueling inflation, which is expected to reach 14.6% in the region this year.
The UN warns that the problem will especially affect the most vulnerable households and increase the risk of food insecurity and social unrest.
In addition, it warns that the war in Ukraine will probably affect agricultural production in countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay as a result of problems in the supply chain and the rise in fertilizer prices caused by the conflict.
Despite this, the UN revised the growth forecast for South America slightly upwards (1.8%), which contrasts with a clear reduction for Mexico and Central America, which went from 3.4% to 2.2%.
The Caribbean, despite a small negative revision, will grow at a very good rate (11.2%) thanks to the recovery of tourism after the blow caused by the pandemic.
EFE
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