Ukrainian forces on Monday claimed to have regained ground in the east and south thanks to their offensives against the Russian invasion, who replied by bombing some of those areas and promised to fight until he achieved his objectives.
“The liberation of towns in the hands of Russian invaders continues in the Kharkov and Donetsk regions” in the east of the country, the Ukrainian army said on Monday.
(Also read: Ukraine claims rapid advance in the east and Russia withdraws)
What land has Ukraine recovered and what does this counteroffensive represent in the midst of the war? ABC to understand the situation.
What territories has Ukraine regained?
Ukraine claims to have recovered around 3,000 km2 of its territory, mainly in the Kharkov region from the beginning of September. And this Monday he claimed the reconquest of 500 km2 in two weeks of counteroffensive in the Jersón region (south).
In this area, “the occupiers also withdrew from their positions in several localities,” the Ukrainian army announced on Sunday.
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski had already announced on Sunday that the city of Izium (east) had also been “liberated” as part of the counteroffensive.
(You can read: United States: Antony Blinken visits kyiv to talk about military support)
In addition, the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Monday that they have liberated more than 20 settlements that had been occupied by the Russians during the last day, the Ukrainian General Staff reported.
“In the last 24 hours alone, the Defense Forces managed to expel the enemy from more than twenty settlements. They are under total control and stabilization measures are being taken,” the General Staff added in its morning report.
It adds that the Ukrainian fighters continue to liberate “settlements of the Russian invaders in the Kharkov (northeast) and Donetsk (east) regions”, strategic points that Moscow had managed to control.
How does Russia respond to these developments?
This Monday, after acknowledging that he had lost groundthe Kremlin resumed an offensive tone and announced the bombing of the areas recovered by Ukraine in the Kharkov region and in the Kupiansk and Izium sectors.
He also assured that the Russian offensive launched in February will continue “until the objectives are achieved.”
“The special operation continues and will continue until the objectives that were initially set are achieved.“said the spokesman for the Russian presidency, Dmitri Peskov.
Peskov avoided further comment on the Ukrainian counteroffensive, redirecting the question to the Russian Defense Ministry.
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The special operation continues and will continue until the objectives are achieved
Moscow has made no further statement about Ukraine’s advances on the ground, but a military map shown by Russia’s defense minister on Sunday showed that his forces abandoned much of the Kharkov region. Russia maintains only a strip of territory in the east of the region, according to the map.
At the same time, Russian forces unexpectedly announced on Saturday that it was “regrouping” its forces from Kharkiv to the Donetsk region further south to concentrate its military effort there. That came shortly after Moscow indicated it would send reinforcements to Kharkov.
While the kyiv government maintains that the Russian soldiers are withdrawing due to the success of their offensive, Moscow assures that it is a strategic issue to focus its efforts on the Donbas area, in eastern Ukraine.
But how has Ukraine managed to regain ground?
According to an analysis of the British newspaper Guardian, The success of the counteroffensive is due to the use Ukraine has given to tanks and weapons received from the West.
The enemy side, that is, Russia, has been weakened by the implementation of high-level artillery sent mainly by the United States, as is the case with Himars rockets.
Guardian further notes that Ukraine “made good use of intelligence to detect the Russian weak point and exploited the geography, the river, to maximum advantage. But above all, it showed the use of combined arms in an appropriate force that was not I had seen before.”
The analysis also indicates that Russia believed that its heavy artillery would allow it to break through sufficiently in the west. However, Moscow embarked on a war of attrition in which it began to find itself outmatched by Western weaponry.
(You can read: Vladimir Putin warns that Russia will ‘resist’ Western aggression)
“The quality of Russia’s overall force has gradually degraded, to about 100,000 soldiers, they rarely rotate to recover and have to cover the vast Ukraine front. Its use of air power remains limited. In the meantime, because the Kremlin refuses to label its war in Ukraine as such, Moscow can mobilize limited additional resources.” Guardian about the reasons that have allowed Ukraine to advance at the rate at which it does today.
What does Zelensky say about the new strategy?
In the midst of the counteroffensive, the president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, predicted in his speech at the 17th meeting of the European Strategy in Yalta, held this Sunday, a “rapid vacancy” of the country this winter since the Russians “are fleeing in some addresses.
“But for this our army needs a systematic supply of the necessary types of weapons,” he said.
For Zelensky, “this winter is a turning point and it can lead to a rapid de-occupation of the Ukraine (…) If we were a little stronger with arms, we could de-occupy faster”.
(You can read: Russia would take years to recover its economy after the sanctions, according to a report)
What does this advance represent in the future of warfare?
The announcement of a Russian withdrawal, together with the Ukrainian version that it entered the town of Kupiansk, are the most significant changes in battle dynamics after months of fighting in eastern Ukraine, which was dominated by Moscow.
According to the Institute for War Studies (ISW), Ukrainian territorial gains in the last five days have exceeded those of the Russian forces “in all their operations since April.”
The ISW was more forthright in its assessments, stating that “lhe Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkov region is defeating Russian forces and collapsing the northern axis of pro-Russian Donbas”.
The advance, then, revives kyiv’s hopes of a turning point in the conflict, after a long period in which the front seemed stalemated.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkov region is defeating the Russian forces
And it is that several of the places reconquered by kyiv are important logistics nodes, on which Russia depends to supply its troops on the front in eastern Ukraine.
(Read more: Ukraine: kyiv Soldiers Seek to Recapture Kherson, a Key Region)
That is why, according to analysts, its reconquest by Ukrainian troops is a very strong blow to Moscow’s ambitions in the Kharkov area.
According to the Washington-based ISW, Ukrainian forces penetrated at some points to a depth “of 70 km”, and in five days seized “more territory than has been conquered by the Russians in all their operations since April”.
Referring to the “regrouping” of Russian forces announced by the Russian Defense Ministry, the ISW noted that “they are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hastily fleeing from the southeastern Kharkiv region to escape the encirclement of Izium.”
What can happen then in the next few days?
According to the ISW, “Ukrainian forces are likely to capture the city of Izium in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. The liberation of Izium would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of kyiv in March.”
This will affect the future of the Russian operation in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the main Ukrainian strongholds in Donbas, the US center estimated.
The loss of Izium, a strategic city for Russia, could also seriously hamper Moscow’s military ambitions in eastern Ukraine, according to military experts.
Despite the positive scenario for Ukraine, Guardian highlights that it is not clear how far the kyiv push can go, For although the weapons and intelligence that the West has given it seem to be useful at last, it is not clear how Russia can continue to respond and what risks the counteroffensive strategy can bring.
(Also: The objectives that the West cannot lose sight of in the war in Ukraine)
And what does the West say about this advance?
The West, for its part, has already begun to emphasize the counteroffensive strategy.
The latest military report from the UK Ministry of Defense delivered on Monday indicates that the “rapid successes” of Ukraine’s troops are having “significant implications” on the operational design of the war for Russia, by forcing it to place its forces at the defensive.
In its most recent report, London noted that “in the wake of Ukrainian advances, Russia has probably ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entire occupied Kharkov region west of the Oskil River.”
Defense indicated that “isolated pockets of resistance continue in this sector but, since Wednesday, Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice as large as that of Greater London (the British capital and its surroundings).”
The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design.
The military report also revealed that “in the south, near Kherson, Russia is probably having difficulty bringing enough reserves down the Dnipro River to the front line.”
(In other topics: Ukraine, resisting in unity)
In that sense, Defense noted that “an improvised floating bridge that Russia began building two weeks ago remains incomplete” and that “Ukrainian long-range artillery is now probably hitting Dnipro crossings so frequently that Russia cannot carry out repairs.” on highway bridges that have been damaged.
“The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design. Most forces in Ukraine are probably being forced to prioritize emergency defensive actions.“, says the statement.
Defense also considered that “it is likely that the already limited confidence that deployed troops have in Russia’s leadership is going to be further limited.”
The truth is that, a few weeks ago, Ukraine’s advances were seen as unlikely, so the future of the war seems to be unpredictable.
*With information from AFP and EFE
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