Of the bubble to scarcity. Housing has traveled from one extreme to another in the last 15 years. While in the previous crisis the sector moved in an environment of excess, currently the biggest challenge for the real estate industry is reactivating housing production. The marked shortage of supply is putting pressure on prices to such an extent that the market is no longer accessible.e for a large part of the population
Specifically, the annual creation of homes more than doubles the production of new housing in Spain. Thus, according to INE estimates, if annual demographic trends continue, the number of households in Spain will grow by almost 3.7 million in the next 15 years. This translates into about 240,000 new homes per year, facing an annual production that does not reach 100,000 units, which means that the housing shortage problem will become bigger every year.
This increasing distance between supply and demand will generate additional pressure on prices, which experts say They expect increases of up to 10% for this yearalthough some forecasts are more moderate and point to average housing price increases of 5-7%.
New sales boom
Added to this situation is the de-escalation of interest rates, which marks the beginning of a new mortgage cycle that will encourage the purchase and sale of housing. “The increase in the household savings rate, together with a resilient labor market and more attractive mortgage conditions, will maintain a very active dynamic with an average of more than 50,000 monthly sales,” predicts María Matos, Director of Studies at Fotocasa.
The expert points out that “There will be an obstacle that will harm latent demand: the shortage of available supplywhich will make finding the ideal home an increasingly complicated task. “The high competitiveness that will be generated by each home will mean that the properties remain on sale for a very short time, which will lead many potential buyers to postpone their decision to purchase a home.”
From Solvia they also expect a reactivation of sales. Thus, they calculate that 2024 closed with moderate year-on-year growth in the estimated transaction volume of between 2% and 3%. “A trend that we anticipate will continue in 2025, mainly due to a more favorable credit access environment and a general improvement in the macroeconomic situation,” indicates Juan Ramón Prieto, Director of Operations at Solvia.
So, Experts point out that this year there will be one of the most favorable periods for buyers who need bank financing.. In fact, “the volume of buyers who do not take out a mortgage to buy a home, currently at 35%, will be reduced throughout the year due to the offer of more attractive and affordable loans,” highlights Matos.
But in addition to increasing the supply of new homes for purchase, the sector also focuses on high-end apartments. social and affordable rent as a great challenge for our country. Thus, they ensure that this It is the most neglected part of the market and where a greater part of the demand is concentrated that also has access difficulties. Specifically, they estimate that 350,000 social rental apartments and 1.5 million affordable units are needed in Spain.
The rental drama
The rental market has also been affected by this shortage of supply and is in fact going through one of its most complicated moments. The two fundamental parts that make it up are increasingly distanced. “Tenants represent 80% of the participation, while owners only 16%. This situation translates into a considerable imbalance between demand and supply,” says Matos, who highlights that “rentals have never gone through such a severe supply crisis.”
The available stock is low, which represents a great obstacle for almost 60% of tenants. “This casuistry results in an extremely compact market in which there is little tenant turnover, where the search process is lengthened and which is increasingly difficult to access due to the high entry requirements,” details the Director of Studies at Fotocasa. . According to the real estate portal, the rental price, in the absence of knowing the latest data, will mark a new high at the end of 2024.
“It will be a figure above 13 euros per square meter and with a forecast of increase above 10% annually, although due to the existing rigidity in prices, the increase in 2025 could be around 7%”, they point out. In the case of Solvia they expect that the increase in rent will be 10% by the end of the year and that in 2025 this increase will be even higher.
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