The war in Ukraine is the main responsible for the fall in the world growth forecast for this 2022 according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which lowered it from 4.4% to 3.6% and warned of a totally uncertain economic scenario.
(Read: IMF raises Latin America’s GDP in 2022, but warns about inflation)
The reduction in eight tenths of world economic activity with respect to the forecast published in January is due “mostly” to the war, although according to the Fund the historical inflation that is being experienced in much of the world and the confinements also contribute to it. of entire cities that continue to be produced by covid-19.
(You are interested in: World Bank expects Ukraine’s economy to fall by up to 45% this year)
The uncertainty of these projections is considerable.
In its global economic outlook report, updated this Tuesday within the framework of the annual spring meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the Fund revises growth forecasts for 143 countries downwards, which represents an impact on 86% of world gross domestic product (GDP).
However, from the financial entity itself they have already warned that their projections are “considerably” more uncertain than usual due to the war and admitted that even the events of the last few days could have already modified them.
Growth could slow further or inflation could exceed our expectations,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the IMF’s Research Department, said when presenting the report.
Gourinchas cited as an example of something that could lead to significant changes in prospects a hypothetical extension of sanctions on Russia by European countries that include its energy exports.
In this sense, the IMF admitted that even the events that have occurred in recent days and not included in the report could already have had an impact on published figures, such as the adoption on April 8 of the fifth package of sanctions against Russia by the European Union worth at least 20,000 million euros (21,590 million dollars).
Precisely in the case of Russia, one of the twelve largest economies on the planet, the IMF forecasts an 8.5% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) this year and a 2.3% drop next year, as a result of the conflict and the sanctions imposed by other countries.
Although in January the IMF forecast a growth of 2.8% for Russia, three months later and after more than six weeks of war, the international financial institution has lowered that forecast by 11.3 points, and now projects a sharp contraction of the economy in the Slavic country.
Naturally, the worst economic consequences of the war are the invaded country, Ukraine, whose GDP will collapse by 35% in 2022, and the effects will last for many years, even if the conflict reaches a prompt resolution, according to warns the Fund.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest grain exporters in the world, especially corn and wheat, as well as suppliers of oil, natural gas and minerals in the Russian case, which makes the war is shooting up the prices of raw materials all over the planet and the economic consequences are being felt far beyond these two countries.
In the rest of the world, the conflict will have a very uneven impact and the world’s two largest economies do not see their forecasts in this report as resentful.
A) Yes, According to the IMF, the United States will grow 3.7% this year and 2.3% nextwhich represents a reduction of three tenths for the forecasts for each year.
In China, growth will be 4.4% this year -four tenths less than expected- and 5.1% next year, one tenth less than previously calculated. Meanwhile, in Japan, the growth forecast has been reduced nine tenths, to 2.4% this year, and increases half a point next year, to 2.3%.
The war, in addition, also adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the evolution of inflation, triggered in much of the world.
From the Fund they indicated that it will be imperative to guarantee long-term growth that countries are capable of curbing the runaway rise in prices without harming the economy.
In addition, Gourinchas highlighted the need for “many countries” to consolidate their fiscal balances, but always maintaining financial support for the most vulnerable population groups, “especially in an environment of high energy and food prices.”
EFE
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