More than 8 months have passed since BBVA launched an offer to acquire Sabadell. This operation, which is dragging on over time, has already gone through the first phases and is waiting for the competition regulator, the CNMC, to rule on whether the resulting financial group would allow the sector to continue complying with the concentration rules. current. Carlos Torres, president of BBVA, has indicated that he is confident in the success of the takeover bid.
During this period of time, the market has been calibrating the possibilities of the operation finally being successful or not since, since it is a share exchange, the premium that BBVA is putting on the table oscillates along with the prices of both shares. . Since the first of May, The average offer premium has been 4.7%.
Well then, this cousin is now in negative territory. That is, there is no benefit for the Sabadell shareholder in accepting BBVA’s proposal under the current terms. In fact, it would even go against the value of your portfolio. Although it is not the first time in these eight months that the premium is negative, the minimum point has been reached in these last sessions, close to 2% losses.
This point has been reached after the strong rebound with which the sector in general and these two companies in particular began the year. Since 2025 started, BBVA shares have risen more than 7% while those of Sabadell almost touch 9%. Behind this rebound is the increasing prospect that the ECB will not be able to lower rates at the pace expected. Now the market only discounts four cuts of 25 basis points throughout 2025. This has taken BBVA shares to their highs for the month of May, almost the moment of launching the takeover bid. Sabadell, for its part, has not been trading this high since 2015.
Regardless of what happens with the takeover bid, the banking business continues to perform very well, taking advantage of interest rates that remain historically high. “BBVA has a high-quality international business, with sustainable income thanks to its dominant market position, with greater profitability than its competition in Mexico, Turkey and Spain while continuing to trade at a discount compared to the sector,” they explain from Bank of America. . Regarding the operation on Sabadell, the North American entity maintains that “it would unlock significant value, protecting profits in a context of rate cuts, in addition to reducing its exposure to emerging markets,” they conclude.
In this context, analysts give the Basque firm’s shares a rise of just over 14% to their average 12-month target price, while in Sabadell the consensus estimates a revaluation of 9.3% from current levels. The latter’s shares receive a buy recommendation.
#Sabadell #shareholder #lose #BBVA #takeover #bid #current #price
