The polls predict a change of government and a clear victory for the SPD and the defeat of the conservatives
The electoral year in Germany, with four regional appointments to the polls, starts this Sunday in the small federated state of Saarland with a sung turnaround in voting trends and an announced victory for the Social Democrats (SPD), just three months after assume the leadership of the coalition with Greens and Liberals (FDP) that governs in Berlin. All the polls without exception predict an overwhelming victory for the SPD and its candidate Anke Rehlinger and a clear defeat for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its still prime minister, Tobias Hans, in the West German region bordering France. The result predicted by the polls will be a severe setback for the new president of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, and the conservatives, which threatens to repeat itself in the coming months in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein. For the SPD and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, it will be a confirmation of their government policy at the national level.
Five years ago, the Conservatives emerged as the leading force in the Saarland with more than 40% of the vote in the hands of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who handed over the head of the regional government to Hans a year later to take over in Berlin the general secretary of the CDU and later to succeed the then Federal Chancellor, Angela Merkel, in the party’s presidency. The Social Democrats then had to settle for second place by adding just under 30% of the vote. The two traditional formations have governed the region for the last five years in a grand coalition in the absence of alternative alliances. In 2017, both the Greens and the FDP were left out of the Saarbrücken parliament as they did not exceed the 5% barrier and only the two ends of the political spectrum, the Left party and the ultra-nationalist Alternative for Germany, also entered the chamber.
Five years later, the situation is different. The polls predict a comfortable victory for the SPD, which brings it closer to 40% of the vote, and a clear defeat for the CDU, which would slightly exceed 30%. More compromised is the situation of the small formations. The four are around 5% of the vote and run the risk that some of them, perhaps even the four, will not get seats to be represented in the regional chamber. Especially critical is the situation of The Left after its former leader Oskar Lafontaine, who was president of the SPD between 1995 and 1999, handed over his card ten days ago after harshly criticizing his formation, which he said is no longer “a alternative to policies of social insecurity and inequality. The departure of Lafontaine, who was Prime Minister of the Saarland with the SPD between 1985 and 1998, threatens to ostracize The Left in that state, after taking that party to record highs of 20% of the vote in western Germany in the Sarre regionals in 2009. In 2005 he had starred in the merger of a dissident wing of German social democracy with the post-communists of the GDR to create La Izquierda.
Just as precarious is the situation of the other small parties. The Greens are in the process of renewal in the Saar after internecine struggles for power that led last year to their not being able to present a list of candidates from that state for the German legislative elections. The Bundestag, the federal parliament, does not have ecologist deputies from the Saarland. The new leadership of the Greens in that region has not had time to make itself known to the electorate. The same lack of popularity suffers the Liberals, who have already been out of the Saarbrücken chamber for two terms and have unknown candidates among the population. Immersed in internal debates and struggles for power are also the populists of the Alternative for Germany, who have dropped in voting intention to the point of also being threatened with exclusion from the regional parliament.
With Hans in clear decline, fundamentally due to the inability to reach the levels of popularity of his predecessor, and Rehlinger strongly on the rise, the Social Democratic victory seems to have been sung. If his victory is confirmed, the SPD will have several alternatives to form a government alliance. From a new grand coalition with the Conservatives as partners in which the Social Democrats take the lead to seeking a coalition agreement with the Greens or the Liberals if either of these two formations or even both obtain parliamentary representation. Rehlinger has stated that he has “great sympathy” for a grand coalition, but has not ruled out the possibility of allying himself with the two small parties and emulating the tripartite that he governs at the national level.
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