When the electoral ban began last Thursday, the latest polls published and those that were still circulating on social networks and messaging applications gave a difference adjusted to the margin of error. This Sunday’s result on a national scale, in that context, once again surprised everyone and everyone. With around 11% difference between the official candidate, Sergio Massa, and the opposition candidate, Javier Milei, the latter was quickly and before the scheduled time recognized by the entire political system as the new president of the Argentine Republic.
Three reflections arise in these minutes that follow the result.
The first is that, according to the data, as of December 10, Unión por la Patria (the current ruling party) will be the first minority in the Senate, with 33 seats, but it could achieve its own quorum (37 votes) with the support of provincial allied groups. Meanwhile, Together for Change will be left with 21 seats, something that will be a mystery because that force suffered a significant schism after the explicit support of former candidate Patricia Bullrich and former president Mauricio Macri for the candidacy of Javier Milei. Meanwhile, La Libertad Avanza, the original force of the next president of the nation will only have seven senators.
In this new political formation, in the Chamber of Deputies, Unión por la Patria will maintain the first minority with 108 seats, followed by Together for Change (94) and, again, this as long as the union between radicals and PRO is not broken. , and La Libertad Avanza will have a block of 38 deputies. This implies that no bloc will have its own quorum and the three (or four) main forces will have to negotiate among themselves.
In this sense, then, all the structural reform measures such as the end of federal co-participation or penal reforms such as the end of the voluntary interruption of pregnancy, which were promised in the campaign by the candidate for president today who is the winner, are, at least, at least, difficult to carry out given that they would require complex parliamentary agreements to reach in these legislative configurations.
Secondly, if the general elections meant a schism for Together for Change, when without prior consultation with the coalition partners, the former presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich, and then the former president Macri, gave full support to the candidate Javier Milei, who had publicly declared his dislike for one of the majority partners of the coalition, the Radical Civic Union, its history, principles and references, these elections of ballotage They leave the door open to a schism in the panperonism national. Although Sergio Massa managed between the PASO elections and this runoff to unite the panperonymso national behind a discursive epic, leaving aside the internal ones between traditional provincial Peronism, ruling Albertism and Christian Kirchnerism, it is very possible that in the coming days there will be an internal passing of bills that will mean a reconfiguration of the space. Sergio Massa starts this reconfiguration with a certain advantage, due to his resistance in an epic campaign that managed to retain around 44% of the national votes, with an interannual inflation that exceeds 140%, but not having managed to win the presidential election leaves the leadership position of national Peronism vacant and in dispute.
Finally, the discontent and the angry vote regarding the economic situation that was expressed territorially in the PASO, and was moderated in the general elections, strongly reverberated in this ballotage. Javier Milei exceeded 45% in 22 of the 24 districts and 50% in 20 of the 24. The threats to the consensus of the 40 years of democracy expressed during the last weeks of the campaign by the LLA candidates did not make a dent in the discontent of the majority of the population with the present economic situation and the recent past. The votes obtained by the candidate Patricia Bullrich in the first round were transferred almost mathematically to the libertarian candidate, and Sergio Massa’s campaign, even retaining its own vote, failed to exceed its ceiling from the general elections. The interior of the country and the sectors most affected by the economic crisis, the nobodies not completely reached by state aid, overwhelmingly turned to the candidate who promised reforms reminiscent of “surgery without anesthesia” of former president Carlos Menem during the nineties.
In a country with a parliamentary institutional configuration that requires agreements, with majorities divided and territorially located between the interior and the center, with a movement idiosyncrasy and a force that campaigned pondering the repressive capacity of the state apparatus, which is going through another economic crisis that requires structural reforms with social costs, the medium-term scenario looks conflictive and unstable.
It will be necessary to see if the Argentine political system has the institutional antibodies shown in the 2001 crisis to go through a new possible government crisis.
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