The so-called Memorandum of Understanding between representatives of the Government of Nicolás Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, signed this week in Barbados, has been received with initial pessimism and misgivings by the population. The agreement, however, in addition to the partial elimination of energy sanctions against Venezuela, the presence of international observers in the 2024 presidential elections and the release of emblematic political prisoners, has generated a rare focus of interest among political and economic analysts. .
The Venezuelan opposition gains margin to hold its primary elections this Sunday. The presidential elections are set for the second half of 2024 and this gives everyone time to regain strength. And international observation in the elections, previously denied by the Chavista leaders, is formally admitted. At the same time, with the removal of energy and mining sanctions on Caracas, the Maduro Government obtains options to finance the nation’s coffers and its own interests. This premise increases expectations of a real economic recovery in such extensive and unequivocal terms that they have surprised both Chavismo and many independent local analysts.
“I see things today with more optimism than I did yesterday,” says Carmen Beatriz Fernández, academic and political consultant. “The removal of sanctions is greater than one expected. There is a change in the State Department’s policy towards Venezuela, due to the current reconfiguration of some global conflicts, such as Ukraine and the Middle East. The Maduro Government has been committed to a roadmap, with a stipulated time and with pre-established agreements. This gives the opposition a framework to draw up a policy.”
For Trino Márquez, sociologist, columnist and political analyst, the true drawbacks of this agreement will be appreciated later. “The very possibility of organizing fair and competitive elections only based on what this agreement expresses remains to be seen. “The Maduro Government knows that in any relatively free and open election it would be defeated.”
Márquez points out that one of the turning points of this entire process will be the final destination of the candidacy of María Corina Machado, the most popular leader in the country in all polls, very likely winner of the primaries. Machado is disqualified due to a measure by the Comptroller General of the Republic that invokes an administrative excuse. Her name continues to be the object of a complex exchange of proposals, pressures and refusals, in the tug-of-war that occurs between Washington and Caracas.
One day after the signatures and congratulations in Barbados, Jorge Rodríguez, head of the Chavista delegation and president of the National Assembly, stated in a speech in the ordinary sessions of the Venezuelan parliament, controlled by Chavismo, that the signed agreements guaranteed the political participation of all actors, “except those who have outstanding accounts with current legislation.” A clear allusion to Machado. He added that the atmosphere of consensus reached should not be clouded with blackmailing attitudes. Rodríguez’s words almost put the existing differences between the parties back to square one.
“These agreements can mark the future of this country in the next five years,” says Luis Peche Arteaga, consultant and political analyst. “The United States has made a substantial change, accepting the circumstances and recognizing the relevance of Maduro in power,” he says. “The agreement contains several advances for the cause of democracy: the recognition of the Unitary Platform, including respect for primaries and guarantees with electoral observation.”
It is well known that the history of political crises in the contemporary international scene, including Venezuela, is overpopulated with signed agreements that are later not fulfilled. “It has been the Maduro Government that has refused to comply with agreements signed in the past,” says Márquez. “What happens is that it will become increasingly difficult due to the financial situation of the country. “His most powerful allies on the international scene will not be able to help him as he would like to recover the local oil industry.”
“Paper holds everything. We have already witnessed many rounds of dialogue similar to this one, which produced enormous excitement, and they have not come to a successful conclusion,” says Peche Arteaga when analyzing the stimulus and punishment policy developed by the current Democratic Administration of Joe Bien against Caracas. “There are reasons to be skeptical. A differentiating factor, perhaps, is the presence of the international community throughout the process, the pledged word in front of such diverse people.”
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