The long year that began on October 7, 2023 in the Middle East is not over yet. The profound and radical changes that have taken place in the past 15 months, following the attacks that the Palestinian group Hamas carried out that day against Israel and the punitive war that Israel subsequently launched against the Gaza Strip, have transformed the balances of power and the lives of many in the region.
The last piece of the domino that has fallen is that of Syria, where Bashar Al Assad’s regime collapsed last December, suddenly, completely changing the scenario in one of the countries that, although it was not the protagonist of this departure, he was a key piece in the so-called “Axis of Resistance” headed by Iran.
With the fall of Al Assad, Tehran has lost its main base of operations in the Arab world, where it had been gaining influence in the last decade by supporting not only the Syrian regime but also various Shiite groups and militias, from Iraq to Yemen.
The Iranian Government has had to withdraw its diplomats and “military advisors” from Syria without protest, after the seizure of power by an amalgamation of armed factions, mostly Sunni, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al Sham (a group born from the subsidiary Syria from Al Qaeda).
Without a doubt, the fact that Iran is no longer present on the other side of its border significantly benefits Israel, which since the beginning of the conflict in Syria in 2011 had punctually bombed Iranian installations, militias and weapons – intended for defense. of the Al Assad regime and also the Lebanese Shiite group, Hezbollah. That supply line no longer exists and Hezbollah will find itself isolated in Lebanon, without Iranian weapons, after Israel has been responsible for destroying a good part of its arsenal in the offensive against Lebanon between September and November 2024.
Everything indicates that in the new Syria there will be a government supported by the West, led by Ahmad Al Sharaa, who has managed to present himself as a viable and acceptable alternative to Bashar, despite his jihadist record. Al Sharaa’s beard does not seem to bother too much in Tel Aviv, as long as it keeps Iran away and does not collaborate with Hezbollah or other “resistance” groups, nor champion that cause.
If the Al Assad regime had used anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian discourse to legitimize itself for decades, the new Syrian administration has not yet exploited the suffering of the “Palestinian brothers” nor has it taken measures against Israel’s expansion in Syrian territory and the occupation of several towns since last December.
“We have not exchanged Al Assad for Israel,” a Syrian woman lamented a few days ago, who could not hold back her tears at the possibility that the Jewish troops would continue advancing towards Damascus. It does not seem that the Israeli Army has any intention of reaching the Syrian capital – further defying international legality and common sense – although it could take advantage of the circumstances to occupy the so-called separation zone between the Golan Heights (Syrian territory occupied by Israel in 1967 and later annexed) and Syria itself. That area is where Israeli tanks are now, even though it should be demilitarized based on a 1974 agreement between the two countries.
Al Assad had never reacted to the numerous attacks against Syrian territory – something that many citizens blame him now, when they have the freedom to criticize the dictator – and he was an uncomfortable neighbor simply because of his dangerous friendships for Israel. Following his departure, Netanyahu could expand the Israeli occupation beyond the Golan Heights for the first time since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It could also occupy the southern strip of Lebanon, from its border to the Litani River, where Israel has destroyed absolutely everything – not just Hezbollah’s military infrastructure – and where its troops are still deployed after the truce agreement reached with the Shiite militia at the end. November, with US and UN mediation.
Two months later, at the end of January, the Lebanese Army would have to deploy in the south of the country, next to the border with Israel, as established by that agreement, but the current incapacity of the country’s Armed Forces is the perfect excuse to that Tel Aviv can remain in that territory and gain a little more ground in the north. The objective, evidently, is not only to have a buffer zone against Hezbollah, but to gradually widen Israel’s borders, to the north, east and southwest – where Gaza is located.
The recent election of Joseph Aoun as the new president of the Republic of Lebanon, after two years of political deadlock, is also good news for Israel. The current head of the Army has the support of the United States, which is Israel’s main ally, as well as Saudi Arabia, the most important Sunni Arab country in the region – which before October 7 was about to to formalize its relations with the Jewish State.
Lebanon has thus been left outside the orbit of Tehran, which in turn has lost its pawn in the Mediterranean country, Hezbollah, weakened militarily and politically after Israel’s major offensive last autumn. The flags of the once powerful Shiite movement continue to fly in the south of the country and in its strongholds in Beirut, but its control on the ground has diminished and so has its ability to influence Lebanese political life – for example, the new government that is is forming.
Both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, and Hamas in Gaza (and, to a lesser extent in other countries where it had a presence), are more weakened than they have ever been since the 1980s, when they were born to fight against Israel. The Jewish State has managed to behead both armed and political movements, and considerably reduce their ability to “resist” against the so-called Zionist enemy.
Hamas has lost control of Gaza, which it had ruled since 2007, along with its top political and military leaders, and many men and weapons (neither Israel nor the Palestinian group has revealed how many). has arrived in extremis to a ceasefire agreement with Israel, which should begin this Sunday, after more than 15 months of a war that has claimed nearly 50,000 Palestinian lives and destroyed much of the Strip. Neither Gaza nor Hamas are what they were before October 7 and it is difficult to imagine how and if they will rise from the ashes.
Israel is the clear winner of the changes that have taken place, especially those that it has brought about by force and bloodshed, from Gaza to Lebanon to the West Bank – where Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories have increased. in this long year of 15 months more than ever in the past three decades.
Perhaps, if there is any other actor in the region that has benefited from the relocation of pieces in the area, it is the Syrian people, who have freed themselves from the tyranny of Al Assad. But it is still too early to say that the Syrians have also won.
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