The Government and the Venezuelan opposition will talk again in Mexico starting this weekend, as announced by the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro. The parties meet again to try to find a negotiated solution to the political crisis in Venezuela, after Chavismo left them on hold a year ago after the arrest of a Colombian businessman close to President Nicolás Maduro. From this discussion a specific date must emerge to hold the 2024 presidential elections with the presence of international observers.
Petro, despite the fact that Colombia is not officially part of the mediators at that table, has made this cause its own. It does not seem casual that he made the announcement on Twitter. Since he came to the Presidency in August, he has reestablished relations with the Chavista government, which had been broken for three years, he has insisted that Maduro rejoin regional organizations, such as the inter-American human rights system, and he has put a lot of effort into dialogue resumes. “The talks should be about a guarantee agreement for the loser, whatever it may be. The loser must be respected within Venezuela. And there should be no interference in the free decision of the Venezuelan people, ”he said recently in an interview with this newspaper.
Colombia intends to play a leading role in reestablishing the talks, they say from the Casa de Nariño. Actually, you already have. In a meeting in Paris a week ago, Petro allied himself with French President Emmanuel Macron and with Argentine Alberto Fernández to get this dialogue started as soon as possible. The three leaders held a key meeting with Jorge Rodríguez, Maduro’s right-hand man, and with opponent Gerardo Blyde. There, a minimum agreement was ready to resume talks.
Chavismo and the opposition will divide the dialogue in two. On the one hand, they will discuss the social needs of Venezuelans; To solve this problem, a UN fund of 3,000 million dollars is planned. On the other, they will have to specify with the calendar in hand when to hold the presidential elections, scheduled for 2024. However, on some occasions Chavismo has hinted that they could be held earlier, in 2023. The international community wants them to be clean and verifiable elections, where anyone can win. The opposition plans to hold primaries from which a single candidate emerges who can challenge Maduro for power.
This November 25 and 26, the dialogues between the Maduro government and the Venezuelan opposition will resume.
— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) November 23, 2022
The international scenario has completely changed in the last year. The United States has approached Maduro about seeking alternative energy sources to Russia since Putin decided to invade Ukraine. Venezuela asks that international sanctions be relaxed for something like this to happen. More than 700 sanctions weigh on the country, greatly limiting its ability to maneuver. However, the local economy has grown in recent months. GDP is expected to rise in double digits this year — between 9 and 12, according to economists; 18 according to the Government -, a significant figure after six years of continuous contraction.
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Parallel to the reactivation of the dialogues in Mexico, Washington will approve a new license for Chevron to exploit heavy and light oil in Venezuela. The decision seems imminent. It is a clear way to relax the sanctions against the Maduro government and experts predict that it will have a great impact on the local economy.
Maduro has also gained international legitimacy along the way. In 2019, many countries supported the alternative presidency of Juan Guaidó, but most have withdrawn it. Isolating and forcing Maduro’s resignation has not yielded any results. Most again opt for the path of diplomacy. Petro now champions that position. In Venezuela he has placed one of his most trusted men, Armando Benedetti, who has established a good relationship with Chavismo. At the same time, the president publicly calls on Maduro to return to liberal democracy. That happened to sit down to negotiate in Mexico, and that step has already been taken.
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