The world is going through a phase of great turbulence and change. The pandemic, geopolitical tension, the technological revolution, the green transition and other factors are driving a profound transformation at various levels, and the labor market is one of the main territories in which this is being projected. A survey published by the World Economic Forum (WEF, for its acronym in English, also known as the Davos Forum) suggests that, in the next five years, this great reconfiguration will affect around a quarter of that market, with significant rates creating new types of jobs and destroying old ones.
He Future of Jobs Report analyzes the prospects of the labor market by weighing information provided by 803 companies that employ 11.3 million workers in 27 sectors and 45 world economies. Together, they offer projectable indications over a perimeter that covers some 673 of the 820 million workers included in the monitoring data of the International Labor Organization. The ILO considers that on a global scale there are some 3,300 million workers between the formal and informal economy. The projection is therefore not exhaustive, but it is broad enough to give solid clues about expectations in the formal economy.
The study —published on the eve of the celebration, this Tuesday in Geneva (Switzerland), of an international conference on growth, employment and opportunities organized by the WEF— projects the creation of 69 million jobs in the 2023-2027 period. new generation economic activity and, in parallel, the disappearance of 83 million of the traditional ones. Weighted on the basis of 673 million jobs in the sectors covered by the study, a rate of alteration (the total of those created and destroyed) of 23% is distilled, and a negative balance of 2%.
The extraordinary volatility of recent years calls for special caution in projecting forecasts, but the study makes it possible to perceive what the expectations of companies are in relation to fundamental dynamics that will hardly change in essence.
The acceleration in the adoption of new and advanced technologies, the expansion of digital access and the more intense application of social and environmental governance (ESG) criteria stand out as the biggest drivers of transformation. Investments to facilitate the green transition or supply issues are also among the main driving forces for change.
Investments for the green transition, ESG criteria and the reconfiguration of more local supply chains are precisely the main elements of net job creation.
The slowdown in economic growth, the scarcity —or increase in prices— of supplies and the increase in the cost of living for consumers —all of them strongly linked to the geopolitical environment— are the factors considered to be the greatest job destroyers in the next lustrum.
In this broad context, it is interesting to focus on the perspectives of companies with respect to the net impact of new technologies on the labor market. The expected balance is generally positive. In other words, although these new technologies will undoubtedly contribute to the destruction of jobs, in almost all cases there is an expectation that more will be created due to their boom. Only robotization throws a negative balance. Among the optimistic perspectives, the segment of data analysis stands out (big data) and climate change mitigation technology.
More training for workers
If companies expect that a quarter of the labor market will undergo radical changes, in terms of job creation and destruction, the impact of the great changes under way in terms of adapting workers’ skills to modern needs is much broader. . Six out of ten workers will need training between now and 2027.
By sectors, those most affected by the transformations that agitate modern times —in terms of creating new jobs and destroying old ones— are the media, entertainment and sports sector, the public sector and information technology and digital communications .
These transformations will have an impact on an asymmetric global labor market, which is highly resilient in advanced economies, where it has weathered the blow of the pandemic and is holding up well to the stresses derived from the war, but is more limping in several emerging or developing economies.
Evolution will of course favor profiles with greater analytical and creative abilities or technical knowledge in key areas. Other segments of the population could suffer in this intense transition, which generates the need to adequately weigh public response policies.
The most sought-after trades and those with the greatest contraction prospects
The study on the future of jobs of the World Economic Forum offers a detailed perspective of the trades that, according to the expectations of the 803 companies consulted, will experience the greatest expansion in the next five years and those that, on the other hand, will suffer the greatest contraction.
Among the former, in absolute terms, the following order stands out: agricultural equipment operators (a sector in which the creation of more than 2.5 million jobs is expected), bus and truck drivers, vocational training teachers and vehicle repairers. machinery.
Among the latter, also in absolute terms, the forecast of job destruction in manual data entry activities stands out (more than eight million jobs of this type will be burned), administrative and executive secretaries, payroll and accounting management, guards of security.
In relative terms, the sectors that are expected to register the largest increase in employees compared to their current situation are specialists in Artificial Intelligence, sustainability, business analysts, information security, Fin Tech engineers and data analysts.
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