The weakening of the ruble may be due, among other things, to increased state budget expenses, says Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. He told Izvestia about this on April 10.
Earlier that day, the euro rose above 101 rubles, the dollar was trading around 93 rubles.
“The ruble continues to moderately but systematically depreciate. Most likely, this is due to increased state budget expenditures, which, among other things, increase the demand for imports. This, together with the likely relatively high volume of capital outflows abroad, continues to put pressure on the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, the Bank of Russia’s tight monetary policy and other measures only keep the ruble from weakening more quickly,” Babin explained.
In his opinion, if there is no significant change in the geopolitical situation or the sanctions regime, the ruble may continue to moderately depreciate in the medium term – within 6-12 months.
Earlier, on April 1, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov told Izvestia that this month the dollar could rise above 93.3 rubles, while the euro will trade in the range of 97.9–101.65 rubles, and the yuan – 12.48–13 rubles. He clarified that there are many multidirectional factors at work on the market that can change the situation with the exchange rate. The expert drew attention to the fact that energy prices continue to rise, which, in turn, will support the exchange rate of the national currency. Also, tax payments by Russian exporters and the sale of foreign currency earnings by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation have a positive effect on the national currency.
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