Dhe Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is having a massive impact on the European arms market. Imports of heavy weapons such as tanks, fighter jets and submarines to Europe have increased by 47 percent over the past two five-year periods – the European NATO countries even by 65 percent. This emerges from a report published by the peace research institute Sipri in Stockholm on Monday.
As a result of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine became the world’s third largest importer of armaments. Overall, however, the volume of arms deliveries between countries worldwide fell by 5.1 percent. The USA remained in first place. Germany remained one of the five largest suppliers.
One of the institute’s researchers involved said: “Although arms transfers have declined worldwide, those to Europe have increased sharply due to tensions between Russia and most other European countries. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European countries want to import more weapons – and faster.”
Ukraine becomes the third largest arms importer
More than half (56 percent) of the guns purchased by these states come from the United States, while 5.1 percent come from Germany, according to the report. The Ukraine suddenly became one of the largest buyers: since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it had hardly imported any heavy weapons. However, in 2022, military aid from the United States and Europe made it number three in the world. Only Qatar and India imported even more. Between 2018 and 2022, Ukraine ranked 14th with 2.0 percent of global imports. Its third largest supplier behind the United States and Poland is Germany.
“Before 2022, there were hardly any arms deliveries to Ukraine. They were at a very low level, especially considering the size of the country and the fact that Ukraine has been at war since 2014,” the Sipri scientist told the German Press Agency. This is the one part that has changed significantly. “The other part is that over the past decade, especially since 2014, European countries have responded significantly to what they see as a hugely increased threat from Russia.” Increasing demand from most European countries is likely to drive down import numbers in the coming years probably have a much stronger impact.
Will France soon overtake Russia?
The United States and Russia have been the world’s dominant arms suppliers for decades. But the gap between them is growing: While America is still the number one exporter with a share of 40 percent, Russia’s share has fallen significantly to 16 percent. France is number three with strong gains to eleven percent. The armaments industry there also has significantly more outstanding major orders than Russia. That’s why Sipri doesn’t rule out the possibility of France overtaking Russia in the near future.
The volume of Russian arms exports fell by 31 percent in a comparison of the periods 2013 to 2017 and 2018 to 2022, particularly sharply in the past three years. The researchers believe that this trend will continue because of the Ukraine war: Russia’s armed forces needed the weapons themselves. In addition, demand from other countries is likely to remain low because of sanctions against Russia and increasing Western pressure on these states.
Strong fluctuations in German arms exports
The five largest export countries are completed by China and Germany. According to the report, the German export volume fell by 35 percent in a five-year comparison. The Federal Republic thus had a 4.2 percent share of global exports (previously 6.1 percent). Countries in the Middle East were the largest buyers of German armaments.
“In Germany we have seen such fluctuations before. This is often related to a relatively small number of larger orders for naval equipment, especially for submarines and frigates,” says the Sipri scientist. There have been delays in several major projects, such as submarine deliveries to Turkey, Israel and Singapore. “Based on this, it would not be surprising if German arms exports increased again.”
The Sipri data refers to the volume of arms deliveries, not their financial value. The independent institute is concerned with long-term global trends: Since the volume can vary greatly from year to year depending on the order situation, the peace researchers focus on five-year periods instead of individual years. This time they made an exception for the Ukraine due to the war.
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