Russian attack | What will change if Wagner withdraws from Bahmut? This is what Ilmari Käihkö thinks

Foreign countries|Russian invasion

Private army Wagner’s commander Yevgeny Prigozhin threatens to withdraw from Bahmut city by next week unless ammunition is received. For more than half a year, Bahmut has been the main stage of the war in Ukraine, where tens of thousands of soldiers are estimated to have died.

“10. May 2023, we must give our position in Bahmut to the units of the Ministry of Defense and pull the Wagner units to the rear camp to lick our wounds,” he said, according to news agency AFP.

Threat is a new chapter in a long series, reminds the docent of military sciences Ilmari Käihkö.

Prigozhin has been blaming the Russian armed forces for months, the defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander Valery Gerasimov obscuring ammunition and making warfare more difficult. Earlier on Friday, Prigozhin published a video in which he accused Šoigu of unnecessary deaths next to a pile of corpses.

So it remains to be seen whether Prigozh will carry out his threat to withdraw.

But what if you do?

Käihkö describes Wagner as a “band-aid” that the Russian armed forces have needed to patch up their short-term weaknesses. Wagner rose to prominence in the fall, when Russia urgently needed soldiers to prevent its front from collapsing.

“It may be that there is no need for the patch now. Russia may have to make a new motion in any case, and on the other hand, the use of prisoners is no longer Wagner’s exclusive right,” says Käihkö.

Prigozhin has sought to present Wagner’s importance in Bahmut as paramount. It’s hardly that important.

According to the political leadership, Wagner’s withdrawal from Bahmut could even be a positive thing, says Käihkö. There are overlapping functions in the war, which Wagner’s departure might clear up, not to mention the constant power struggle.

“A uniform chain of command makes warfare easier,” says Käihkö.

On the other hand Bahmut himself has become a bigger thing. Both Ukraine and Russia have sacrificed a huge amount of lives and equipment for a small town of little strategic importance.

The war would not end even if Russia withdrew from Bahmut completely. It might even be wise, even if it causes temporary humiliation.

“You can ask whether Bahmut has ever been terribly important to Russia. The soldiers there can be used to repel Ukraine’s counterattack,” says Käihkö.

Russia must prepare for a counterattack by Ukraine in early summer at the latest.

Wagner always gets a lot of attention in the western media, not least because of the loud and media-sexy Prigožin. Käihkö points out that Russia also uses other private security companies in Ukraine.

If Prigozhin decided to withdraw Wagner from Bahmut, other private armies might be able to buy Wagner’s mercenaries into their ranks.

“Companies cannot operate there without the approval of the Russian administration. It could be that they are there so that the companies can be merged into the armed forces. Or the soldiers trained by Prigožin can be transferred to other companies if Wagner leaves.”

Wagner has an undeniable foreign policy value for Russia, for example, because of the foothold he gained in Africa, although even that is exaggerated.

Yet of course, it is not known how Russia will react to Prigozhin’s threat.

“It is not known how constructive discussions have taken place in the background,” says Käihkö.

Until now, the administration has mostly responded to Prigozhin’s accusations and demands with silence.

President Vladimir Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the matter on Friday.