According to Antti Pihlajamaa, a research officer at the National Defense College, the missile strikes on Sunday morning are an increasingly serious and threatening message to the West as well.
Russia attacked the Javoriv International Military Training Center in western Ukraine on Sunday morning, just 20 kilometers from the Polish border. At least 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the attacks, according to local authorities. There are both soldiers and civilians dead.
According to Ukrainian authorities, Russian fighter jets fired more than 30 cruise missiles at the training center. Air defense fired 22 missiles, according to authorities, but at least eight were hit.
Prior to the war, the training center also housed U.S. soldiers training Ukrainian soldiers as part of NATO-Ukraine defense cooperation.
Rescue workers transferred the injured soldier to the hospital following a missile strike at a Russian base in Javoriv, Russia, on Sunday.
This is Russia’s most serious blow to western Ukraine during the two-and-a-half-week war. Explosions was also heard In the city of Lviv, which has so far been spared Russian invasion. Different reports according to the explosions were clearly heard on the Polish side of the border as well.
Russia also fired a missile at Ivano-Frankivsk airport in western Ukraine. It was already the second in three days.
Exact information about the damage caused by the attacks is still obscured. Russia could also destroy Western arms shipments with the attacks. On Saturday, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that Western arms shipments in Ukraine are “legitimate destinations” for Russia.
In any case, Sunday morning’s missile strikes are Russia’s “clear message to both Ukraine and the West providing aid,” says a research officer at the National Defense College. Antti Pihlajamaa. The attacks may well have been of practical significance as well, but their symbolic message is increasingly aimed at the West.
“Of course, from its own point of view, Russia does not like the need for arms aid to Ukraine. The morning attacks in western Ukraine in the aftermath of Friday send a message in an increasingly serious and threatening tone. ”
The goal of Poland, NATO and other actors is “certainly by all means to prevent the spread of war outside Ukraine in both the short and long term”.
However, arms grants are unlikely to end in a missile strike near the Polish border, Pihlajamaa says.
“The stakes are already so high that they won’t be cut off because of that. Practical issues may need to be reconsidered, ie how and where help will be delivered in the future. ”
Ukrainian soldiers carried the coffin of their deceased comrade at Lythivivi Cemetery in Lviv, western Ukraine, on March 9, 2022.
Rowan according to Western experts, there is no exact answer to what is ultimately the guiding idea of the Russian operation.
“What are they ultimately striving for?” He asks.
Missile strikes in western Ukraine are reminiscent of what the French president said Emmanuel Macron said a week and a half ago after speaking Vladimir Putin with the phone: Putin’s goal is to take over the whole of Ukraine.
Pihlajamaa does not believe that this goal will be achieved.
“With these available forces, I cannot believe that Ukraine will be completely conquered.”
According to Western estimates, Russia has sent virtually all its troops concentrated on Ukraine’s borders during the autumn and winter to Ukraine. According to Pihlajamaa’s estimate, Russia no longer has very many additional troops available immediately. A large part of the permanent standby force is already concentrated in Ukraine.
Read more: “If Russia wants Belarus to join the war, Putin tells Lukashenko to launch an attack, the point” – Why is Russia not seeking help from its neighbor?
The mobilization would give more troops, but the system is rigid and takes time, Pihlajamaa says.
“And how to get combat-ready troops from the reserve? That is very questionable. ”
In the face of compulsion, the reservists would certainly respond to the call, but how great would be the will to fight? To what extent would the Russians feel at home in the war if its full extent were to be revealed to the people through mobilization?
“All in all, the idea of taking over Ukraine seems very unrealistic,” says Pihlajamaa.
At the same time Russia has shown no signs of retreating. Russian forces are still trying to besiege several different cities, including Kiev, and in southern Ukraine, Russian forces have managed to push at least individual wedges into the west, east, and north.
Russia has not seemed particularly keen on heavy street fighting, but the situation may change.
The situation in eastern Ukraine has come to the fore recently, says Pihlajamaa.
“There, Ukrainian troops are getting tougher, and there is a risk of some degree of siege from the Russian side. Ukraine may have to withdraw its forces further west to avoid embargo. “
Russia is advancing south-east of Kharkov and north of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine, but there are no precise data on the strength of Russian forces.
Russia is now tying Ukraine to battles in all directions. It consumes and binds Ukrainian troops, but at the same time it weakens Russia’s attempts to advance, Pihlajamaa says.
“It is a bit surprising that Russia has a kind of scattered forces. More centralized use of Russian forces is not very easy. ”
According to Pihlajamaa, it is possible that Russia grouped its troops on the assumption that Ukraine would surrender easily. When that didn’t happen, changing the grouping is no longer easy.
“We are in a situation where the grouping created during the winter is also reducing Russia’s operational options.”
A field hospital for doctors from Samaritan’s Purse in the United States has been erected in an underground parking garage in the nearby village of Lviv. Photo taken on March 12, 2022.
Britannian Ministry of Defense said on Sundaythat Russia is currently paying a heavy price for every attempt to advance across Ukraine as Ukrainian forces continue to “unwavering resistance”.
According to Pihlajamaa, it is clear that Russia has “suffered quite heavy losses”. According to his assessment, the current losses do not yet hinder Russia’s operations, but if the losses occur at a similar pace for a longer period of time, Russia may have to think more closely about what resources are actually sufficient and what is ready to be tolerated.
“In a spiritual sense, Russia has perhaps a higher loss tolerance than the West. Maybe we think war is war and it involves losses. ”
According to Pihlajamaa, Russia’s losses reported by Western intelligence services, ie in the range of 5,000–6,000 dead, are quite indicative. Accurate data is unlikely to be available for a long time.
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