Ka country in Europe hosts as many Ukrainian refugees in terms of population as the Czech Republic. According to Eurostat, a good tenth of the refugees reported in the EU at the end of 2022 were in the Czech Republic: 432,000. Almost half as many as in Germany and Poland, although the country only has around 10.5 million inhabitants.
According to official data, 94,000 Ukrainians had paid work in the Czech Republic at the end of January, 15,000 in the Pilsen (Plzeň) region alone. That is lucky for regional president Rudolf Špoták. The unemployment rate in the economically booming industrial region on the border with Germany is already 3 percent, one of the lowest in the Czech Republic, he says. The Ukrainians come at just the right time. He also hopes “that half will stay”.
Špoták’s hope is Andriy Pyshnyy’s nightmare. Pyshnyy is governor of Ukraine’s central bank, which deals with the economic consequences of migration. Pyshnyy is grateful that the EU offers his compatriots shelter, help and jobs. But he also sees it with “mixed feelings”.
Because many refugees could stay where they are and no longer return to their homeland. They would be missing in the reconstruction. “We could lose the best of the best,” Pyshnyy warned recently in a video conference. “We have to make sure we get our people back, we need them here.”
The longer the war lasts, the more people settle down
In fact, a large proportion of refugees are considering staying in the host country, although the majority say they want to go back once the war is over. A study by the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights recently revealed that every fourth refugee from Ukraine wants to stay in Germany long-term.
The Kyiv Center for Economic Strategy (CES) has researched the reasons for this and the consequences. The war plays an important role. The longer it lasts, the more people look for work abroad and settle down. The younger they are, the more willing and able they are to adapt. Some parents also assessed their children’s development opportunities better abroad. They are therefore prepared to accept temporary inconveniences. In addition, anyone who comes from the war-ravaged regions of the east must build a new life in Ukraine, look for a place to live and find work.
In a model calculation, the Kiev economists came to the conclusion that between 860,000 and 2.7 million Ukrainians could remain in Central and Western Europe. This fits with an estimate by the European Central Bank, which put the number of those willing to stay at 25 to 55 percent.
“Older people, people with a lower level of education and those who worked before the war are more likely to return,” write the Kiev CES researchers. The more educated stayed in the west. That would hit Ukraine all the harder.
German business representatives praise the skilled labor potential
In surveys at the border, 66 percent of the refugees, most of whom are women with children, stated that they had a higher education, says Pyshnyy. That is a high value, not only compared to the average 29 percent in Ukraine, but also to those 33 percent of EU citizens who have higher qualifications.
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