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The Ukrainian lines are still holding against Russia’s war of aggression. But an expert is sending an urgent warning to Europe.
Kiev/Munich – US aid to Ukraine was on hold for months – now it’s coming. Military and financial supplies are eagerly awaited in Kiev. But the all-clear does not seem to be necessary, on the contrary: the fact that the own army survived the waiting period is “a miracle,” said political scientist Mykola Bielieskow in an interview on Tuesday (April 30). IPPEN.MEDIA. He is skeptical about the future. And to the USA.
Bielieskow advised Europe to take quick precautions against Vladimir Putin’s next moves. Europe must prepare itself for the “worst case scenario”. “In my view, the most important thing now is that the Europeans stop expecting any further large US aid package,” warned Bielieskow. The continent could be “on its own” within a year. The background to the statement is the approaching one US election 2024. The possible new president Donald Trump is – to say the least – negative about aid to Ukraine. The Republicans in the House of Representatives blocked the most recent package for a long time.
Help against Putin’s war of aggression: Europe must act – “contradicts military logic”
The fact that further support will come from Washington is questionable given the “multiple wars,” Bielieskow warned. And over the past two years, the West’s actions have already taken place with a view to this Ukraine war in any case contradicted “military logic”. “If you allow your opponent to take the initiative – for example by not providing weapons – then it won’t help, then nothing good will come of it,” warned the scientist at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev and analyst of the Ukrainian initiative “Come Back Alive.”
Bielieskow issued an even clearer warning: The war in Ukraine is a matter of global concern – Ukraine is also fighting as a representative of Europe and is making “great sacrifices”. “We cannot guarantee your integrity for all time,” said the expert. He added: “People might think that a year is a long time.” That is a fallacy.
Specifically, the political scientist advised that supplies of weapons and ammunition should be secured now for a possible phase when US support dries up. Europe must prepare itself to “receive weapons and equipment from certain countries” – possibly also by purchasing them from the United States if the country no longer provides its own package in 2025. “Germany is a big country,” Bielieskow added meaningfully. Data presented in February showed the Federal Republic as one of the most important donor countries – an even more prominent role may be necessary.
Ukraine successes a “miracle”: Expert warns Europe – “Better not take it for granted”
Bielieskow pointed out that holding the front lines against Russia’s attacks over the past seven months had already amounted to a “miracle”. “I’m pretty sure that a computer simulation, given all the parameters, would have predicted different results than what we have now,” he emphasized. The Ukrainian army waged a defensive battle on what was actually an “unsustainable basis” – but in doing so sacrificed the ability to maintain future combat readiness to maintain the status quo.
Russia has recently made breakthroughs, but not to the depth usual for massive offensive operations. That needs to be appreciated. At the same time, it is better “not to be taken for granted,” warned Bielieskow, “this cannot continue like this forever.” However, additional anti-aircraft systems are also needed to be able to defend at least urban areas against Russia’s air strikes – the scientist sees a “typical Russian strategy” behind the attacks on cities like Odessa and Kharkiv. (fn)
#time #wisely