Berlusconi can do it, at least on the basis of the numbers: the real obstacle is not to convince Renzi but to be sure that in the whole center-right there are no “snipers”
The “dragon” has proposed itself, but the “caiman” is the animal that lives the longest. Draghi’s self-nomination is crazy: not only is he running, but he ensures that he will take care of the new government, only the list of new ministers is missing. In short, the famous expression of the Marquis del Grillo comes to mind … but watch out for the “caiman”.
On January 4, the President of the Chamber will convene the Parliament in joint session, which will begin to meet – as usual – between 15 and 20 days to allow the Regional Councils to elect the delegates. The elections, by secret ballot, will begin between 19 and 24 January.
The plenum is made up of 1,009 electors: 630 deputies, 315 senators, 6 senators for life and 58 regional delegates (three for each region, except Valle d’Aosta which has only one). In the first three votes a 2/3 majority is required of the members (673), while from the fourth ballot onwards the majority of the members, alias 505.
The only certainty is that this time the center-left, alone, will not elect any Head of State. It is the first time in fifteen years. Pd, M5S, LeU, plus Europe and their regional delegates, plus all the senators for life, arrive – without snipers – at 410. There are 95 missing.
The cards this time, had never happened, will give her the center right. Let’s see the numbers. The parties of the coalition that obtained the relative majority of votes and seats in 2018, including regional area delegates (the coalition governs in 15 out of 20 regions) and without any senator for life, can cast – without defections – 439 votes. 66 are missing.
In the middle it positions itself Italy Viva with its 42 parliamentarians, who in the abacus are not numerically decisive for either coalition. However, a few days ago Matteo Renzi he said the center-right has more seats than the Democratic Party and its allies had when it was elected in January 2015 Mattarella, and therefore this time the Quirinale match will necessarily have to be played with the center-right.
Silvio Berlusconi. Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d’Italia and Coraggio Italia have already indicated the Knight as theirs official candidate from the fourth vote onwards, confident that an agreement can be found with Italia Viva on the name of the former Prime Minister. In his latest book Renzi had words of sympathy and esteem for Berlusconi; therefore, an eventual agreement to send Silvio to the Quirinale is not difficult to find. At this point, adding the votes of the whole center-right, of Italia Viva and of the regional delegates of the area, we arrive at 481, actually 482 if we add Vittorio Sgarbi who is registered in Montecitorio with a group other than Forza Italia. Berlusconi would therefore be missing just 23 votes.
Where to catch them? In the Senate the mixed group has 48 senators, in the Chamber 66. At Palazzo Madama there are also 8 senators from the Autonomie group while in Montecitorio there are a further 24 deputies not members of any group and another 25 deputies from Action, Democratic Center, Maie, linguistic minorities and Usei-Rinascimento. A pool of 171 parliamentarians. Rich dish I stick with it.
If we then consider the fact, which is quite not insignificant, that some parliamentarians of the M5S are terrified that in the end Draghi will make it, which in a nutshell would mean the automatic fall of the current government and the risk of early elections (one year less salaries for parliamentarians who will never be re-elected), the game of secret ballot is made even more interesting. Anyone who, in this situation, would like to compare Prodi’s fate in 2013 to those of Berlusconi, is wrong. Prodi was shot down by the “101 Dalmatians” when there was no risk of early elections (political elections had just been held), while this time the story is decidedly different.
Berlusconi, therefore, can do it. At least based on the numbers. The real obstacle is not to convince Renzi or about thirty parliamentarians from the mixed group to converge on the name of the former Prime Minister (as we have seen, the operation is feasible), but to be sure that there are no “francs in the entire center-right” shooters “. Are we really sure that all Forza Italia MPs are following the man to whom they owe their fortune? After the experience with Alfano in 2013, when the prodigal son betrayed his benefactor in the moment of greatest difficulty, if we were in the Knight we would beware not so much from enemies – those are declared – but from friends. If it doesn’t make it, Berlusconi will miss about twenty votes, those of some parliamentarians elected thanks to him.
#Quirinale #Draghi #Silvio #Unknown #snipers