Thousands of supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace on January 8, 2023.
In some images reminiscent of those of the assault on the US Capitol, on January 6, 2021, protesters have been seen running over and beating the police as they broke through the security perimeter of the buildings.
The assault comes weeks after Bolsonaro left power after elections that decided the return of the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Rafael Ioris, an expert on Brazilian politics at the University of Denver, explains the meaning of the attack and what could happen next.
The military may have fueled the protest, but when it was time to complete a classic-style coup, they didn’t take the tanks out on the streets.
What has been the role of the armed forces?
Brazil has a long history of a military that does not accept rule by civilians. The last military coup was in 1964. Of course, the circumstances are different now than then, when in the middle of the Cold War the coup was supported by foreign governments, including the US.
Jair Bolsonaro has strengthened ties with the Brazilian military by placing key military officers in government positions. Right-wing generals friends with Bolsonaro became defense minister, head of state and even health minister at the height of the Covid-19 crisis. On the other hand, it is estimated that about 6,000 active duty military got jobs in non-military positions in government for the past eight years.
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Some Army and Air Force generals in particular have supported the protests. Since the elections, there have been generals who have proclaimed that demonstrations demanding military intervention were legitimate.
I think it’s fair to say that some segments of the Brazilian military have been rooting for what happened.
But when push comes to shove, the armed forces have remained silent. The military may have fueled the protest, but when it was time to complete a classic-style coup, they didn’t take the tanks out on the streets.
Was this a coup attempt?
That is the central question. As the events of January 8 have unfolded, it looks more like a protest that has turned violent and gotten out of hand: the level of destruction inside some buildings attests to that.
But it had been weeks in the making and was well financed, in the sense that hundreds of buses were paid for to take Bolsonaro supporters to the capital. And the express goal of many protesters was military intervention. So in that sense, it looks more like an attempted coup.
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Lula’s election seems to indicate that there are still more who want to rebuild the democratic institutions in the country after four years of Bolsonaro’s attack
What does the attack tell us about democracy in Brazil?
Brazil has been at a crossroads. Bolsonaro’s presidency saw the country regress in democracy, as trust in institutions eroded under attack from the president himself and through corruption scandals. And almost half the country voted for him despite his record against democracy. But the election of Lula seems to indicate that still There are more who want to rebuild the democratic institutions in the country after four years of Bolsonaro’s attack.
So this could be a turning point. The Brazilian media have strongly denounced the actions of the protesters. In the coming days and weeks, what happened will be investigated, and it is to be hoped that responsibilities will be cleared up. What will be key is Lula’s ability to deal with anti-democratic elements in the military.
Are the comparisons with the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol valid?
Trumpismo and Bolsonarismo share a narrative of stolen elections, with supporters drawn from the right who support issues like the right to bear arms and traditional family structures.
One important difference is the role of the military. Although former members of the military were present at the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, senior US military officials condemned it. In the United States, a military intervention was not intended either, unlike the attack on January 8 in Brasilia.
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But there are clear parallels: in both cases we saw powerful far-right groups and individuals refusing to accept the direction of a country and trying to assault the institutions of power.
Now I wonder if there will also be parallels in what happens after the attack.
In the United States, the authorities have done a good job punishing many of those involved. I’m not sure we’re going to see the same thing in Brazil, as they may have to contend with powerful groups within the military and police forces across the country. Thus, democratic actors inside and outside the country will be essential to support the task of defending democracy in Brazil.
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RAFAEL R. IORIS
THE CONVERSATION*
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