In Niamey, the usual Sunday rest prevailed, while internationally the expiry of an ultimatum to the new Nigerien rulers was eagerly awaited. Niger is the fourth country in West Africa where the military has seized power since 2020. Last week, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) gave the putschists seven days to reinstate the democratically elected government. Otherwise, military intervention is also possible, she had threatened.
But even on Sunday there was no indication that the putschists would comply with ECOWAS’s request. Instead, their tone has sharpened toward the allies of the ousted government. Already on Friday they announced that they would terminate bilateral military agreements with France and withdraw the Nigerien ambassadors from France, Nigeria, the USA and Togo.
Unconfirmed reports of the alleged arrival of the Russian Wagner mercenary force made the rounds on social media over the weekend. Accordingly, advisers to the troops from Mali are said to have come to the country. A few days earlier, one of the coup leaders in Mali had held talks with the interim president there, Assimi Goïta.
Devastating consequences for the region
Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, where the current leaders also came to power through coups, have pledged their support to the coup plotters in Niger. It is estimated that there are around 1,000 Wagner mercenaries in Mali. On the other hand, Nigeria and Senegal have shown themselves willing to send soldiers to Niger in an emergency.
Giving in to the putschists, as well as a military strike, could have devastating consequences for the region, which is already being shaken by Islamist terrorist groups. President Mohamed Bazoum, who is still being held, spoke for the first time in an article for the “Washington Post” a few days ago and described himself as a “hostage”. Hundreds of other people have also been arbitrarily and illegally arrested by the putschists. He warned that the entire Sahel region could come “under Russian influence via the Wagner group.”
Much now depends on the new Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, who currently chairs ECOWAS. Since taking office, he has been more decisive and active than his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari. In a very short time, he has implemented a wealth of innovations in his own country, such as currency reform and the abolition of fuel subsidies. Observers believe it is possible that he also wants to play a more active role in the region. In addition, Nigeria has great economic and political influence in the region.
Chaos in the neighboring country could further worsen the security situation in Nigeria, especially since the two states are separated by a porous border more than 1,600 kilometers long. It is estimated that more than a million Nigerians live in Niger. On the Nigerian side, the ethnic groups in the north feel closer to the Nigeriens than to other ethnic groups further south in their own country.
In Nigeria, too, military intervention is not supported by everyone. At the end of last week, the Senate and the umbrella organization of the Muslim community, Jama’atu Nasril Islam, called for a “cautious” reaction to the coup and for political and diplomatic solutions. “The intertwined territories of the northern states of Nigeria and the Republic of Niger require a more prudent and considered approach.
Observers fear tensions within ECOWAS
With several Nigerian states bordering Niger, military intervention could have unintended consequences that could affect the peace and stability of both countries,” the Vanguard newspaper quoted the Muslim organization as saying. Before that, she and the Senate had discussed a letter from Tinubus about the sanctions that had been decided and a possible military strike behind closed doors. However, an ECOWAS delegation for mediation purposes returned from Niger on Thursday after only a few hours without any result. She had reportedly met neither the self-proclaimed head of state, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, nor the arrested Bazoum.
Observers also fear tensions within the ECOWAS states should the community carry out its threat and send troops to Niger. In a joint statement, Burkina Faso and Mali have already announced that an intervention would be a declaration of war on their own countries. For their part, the putschists in Niamey announced an “immediate counterstrike” against “any aggression”. There was a military intervention by ECOWAS in The Gambia in 2017 when then-President Yahya Jammeh refused to resign after an election defeat. It was successful. The Gambia is a much smaller country than Niger, however, and is almost completely surrounded by Senegal. There was also a lot of popular resistance to Jammeh’s power behavior at the time.
Meanwhile, ECOWAS sanctions against Niger are already making themselves felt, hitting ordinary people the hardest. According to reports in the local press, Nigeria has cut power in Niger for several hours every day for the past week. Closing borders and lack of access to ports are already causing bottlenecks and rising prices.
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