Euskadi (2.2 million inhabitants) votes this Sunday to elect for the thirteenth time the Basque Parliament that will invest the sixth lehendakari of democracy. For the first time since 1980, the two nationalist forces arrive at these elections practically equal and are playing for political hegemony. The polls leave open the possibility that EH Bildu will manage to surpass the PNV, something unprecedented until now. They are elections also marked by the generational change (five of the seven candidates for lehendakari are new), very different from those held four years ago in the middle of the pandemic. The seven main candidates ―Imanol Pradales (PNV), Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu), Eneko Andueza (PSE-EE), Javier de Andrés (PP), Miren Gorrotxategi (Vamos), Alba García (Sumar) and Amaia Martínez (Vox) – have led a campaign that has run with a respectful and constructive tone and has been conditioned, in its initial part, by the Athletic Club Cup title and the successive celebrations of its fans, the death of former president José Antonio Ardanza and, now in the end, due to the attack on the candidate Pradales at a rally and Otxandiano's refusal to condemn and call ETA a terrorist group. These are the main keys to the closest elections in history in this autonomous community.
The PNV has won, in number of votes, each of the 12 elections to the Basque Parliament held to date. According to the latest polls, this Sunday, for the first time, EH Bildu could have more votes. It is even more likely that the PNV will lose in number of seats, since the electoral system allocates 25 seats to each of the three provinces and the PNV is stronger in Bizkaia, which has as much population as Gipuzkoa and Álava combined, but in this On this occasion, the polls do not guarantee such a comfortable victory in this province. It would not be the first time that the training jeltzale It does not win in seats: in 1986, in the midst of a split from EA, the PSE surpassed it. The PNV has always governed the Basque Country in a democratic manner, except for the period from 2009 to 2012, when the PSE governed after coming second. Everything indicates that he will continue to govern, probably in coalition with the PSE as until now, although together they do not add an absolute majority, since in the second vote the lehendakari can be invested only by having more yeses than his rivals. But the loss of hegemony of the party would be the confirmation of an important social change and would have a powerful symbolic value, all the more so if it were taken away by a party in a clear upward trend and with a younger electorate.
There has been talk of democratic regeneration: five of the seven candidates had never been democratic before. They also had very low knowledge rates among the population: 40dB in the survey. For EL PAÍS and La Ser published on March 25, the two best-known candidates were Imanol Pradales (PNV) and Eneko Andueza (PSE) and they were only known by 55% of the voters. For this reason, the parties, in addition to communicating their messages, have had to make their candidates known. With a low-profile first week of the campaign, due to the celebrations of Athletic's cup victory and the death of Lehendakari Ardanza, that work has focused on an intense second week, at the end of which everyone seems settled in their leadership. Regarding the two candidates with the most options, Pradales (PNV) has managed to exhibit the presidential profile he was looking for, and the humble and approachable style of Otxandiano (EH Bildu) seems to have caught on among a sector of the electorate, despite the spectacular mistake committed last year. last Monday, showing that the memory of ETA's terrorism continues to be a burden for the training.
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With something similar to a technical tie between the first two parties, PNV and EH Bildu, the high number of undecided people indicated by the polls takes on special importance. Up to 30%, according to the CIS of April 10, and mostly PNV sympathizers. That is why the training jeltzale He has made it clear that his objective was to mobilize the undecided, something he has tried to do at every rally and in every debate. The undecided, as sociologists explain, tend to become abstentionists. But there is a percentage that decides at the last moment. Regarding participation, it will not be fair to compare it with that of the previous regional elections in 2020, since they were held under the shock of the pandemic and only 50.78% of the electorate voted. It will be more reasonable to compare it with those of 2016, in which participation reached 60.02%, and had been falling in each election since 2005.
The least populated of the three Basque provinces is called to have a special role. Firstly, because it is the territory where the result is most uncertain. Everything indicates that the PNV will win in Bizkaia and EH Bildu will prevail in Gipuzkoa, but in Álava the March Basque Sociometer placed the two nationalist formations tied at nine seats. Furthermore, due to the electoral system, which gives 25 seats to each province, a seat for Álava costs a quarter of the votes that one for Bizkaia costs. Therefore, a relatively small difference in votes in Álava can cause important seat swings for the formation of majorities.
Sunday's elections could bring, according to the polls, the Basque Parliament with the most weight of nationalism in history. The 40dB survey. for EL PAÍS and Ser de Abril gives the sum of PNV and EH Bildu 58 of the 75 seats. Substantially above the highest mark recorded to date, that of 52 nationalist seats, reached in 1986 and in 2020. The Basque Parliament has always had a nationalist majority, with the exception of the mandate of the socialist Patxi López (2009-2012) , in which the nationalist forces totaled 35. In these elections Batasuna could not appear because it was illegalized by the application of the Law of Parties. The paradox of these elections is that this most nationalist Parliament in history will represent a society in which the sovereignist drive is going through its lowest hours.
Euskadi votes this Sunday almost 13 years after the cessation of ETA terrorism and six years since the dissolution of the band. There are already 15 electoral processes that have been held peacefully since October 2011 in this community. Five decades of criminal activity are something distant for the younger generations and concern about ETA has completely disappeared in Basque society. In a campaign focused on everyday problems—health, the economy, housing…—, terrorism has been blurred in the electoral debate. Except for the flash that Otxandiano caused when he avoided saying that ETA was a terrorist organization and then wanted to make amends by asking for forgiveness from the victims. The moderation strategy that the left abertzale he was wearing was blown up in the final stretch and revealed that he still owes an ethical debt until he self-criticizes his political complicity with terror and takes the step of unequivocally condemning the band's bloody history. The question is whether this misstep by Bildu can take its toll on him at the polls.
The space that Podemos Euskadi occupied on the left of the PSOE after its electoral emergence in Euskadi in 2015 and 2016 (it was the first force in votes) has been evaporating over the years and is in danger of disappearing completely after this electoral event. The demoscopy predicts the end of the survival of Elkarrekin Podemos and Sumar, who run separately and in the campaign have accentuated their enmity. Look, Gorrotxategi ( Podemos ) has tried to establish a clearly left-wing profile and in favor of an understanding with Bildu after the elections, while Alba García ( Sumar ) has dedicated herself to criticizing the PSE (her partner in the central Government) and above all everything to the PNV, in addition to demanding a change of political cycle in Euskadi. That electorate that gave them the vote (the purple ones reached more than 335,000 ballots in the 2016 general elections) will end up seeking refuge now in EH Bildu, in a large part, and in the PSE-EE, to a lesser extent. These two formations have been precisely the ones that have tried insistently to fish in that fishing ground on the verge of being depleted.
No party is going to achieve an absolute majority; Post-electoral agreements are going to be a necessity, as has always been happening in this autonomous community. An equal result between the PNV and EH Bildu, whether victory falls on one side or the other, would leave the key to governability in the hands of the socialists. “We are going to decide the Government and its policies,” the PSE-EE candidate Eneko Andueza has been repeating, closing the door to agreeing with Bildu or making Otxandiano lehendakari. The reissue of the PNV-PSE formula, which is deployed in provincial councils and many Basque town councils, is the preferred one for the electorate of these two formations. The PP is keeping a watchful eye and will enter the scene if with its votes it can prevent the sovereignists from taking power, although this time, they warn, they will not do so. free et amoreas happened last year in the Guipuzcoan Provincial Council and the Vitoria City Council, where they were key to vetoing Bildu.
EH Bildu, spurred by its upward trend, proposes that the list with the most votes govern. He sees himself as a winner and wants to test his greatest adversary, the PNV. He proposes to reproduce in this community the alliances that exist in Navarra and Pamplona. But relying on the socialists to dislodge the PNV, as Arnaldo Otegi would like, would have fatal consequences for President Sánchez because, in that case, he would lose the five votes of the PNV in Congress and his governability would be at risk. The socialists are forced to strike a balance and this difficult game has been taken advantage of by the PP to criticize Sánchez for “whitewashing Bildu” and “feeding the monster” that can win the Basque elections. Feijóo has participated a lot in this campaign to support his candidate Javier de Andrés and convey to the public that there is a danger of covertly benefiting Bildu if the PSE and PNV ballots are chosen this Sunday.
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