03/28/2024 – 16:03
Oil closed higher this Thursday, 28th, after two sessions of decline and amid concerns about a possible disruption in global supply. In the quarter, the commodity accumulated gains of more than 12%, in the wake of new cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East – with the Houthis in Yemen – and in Eastern Europe – among Russia and Ukraine.
WTI for May closed up 2.23% (US$1.82), at US$83.17 per barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). In the month, it increased by 6.27% and in the quarter, by 16.08%. Brent for March, in turn, today advanced 1.86% (US$ 1.59), to US$ 87.00 per barrel, in March it rose 6.21% and, in the first quarter, it rose 12.93%.
Louis Navellier, from Navellier, highlights that crude oil prices are approaching their highest in almost five months, due to seasonal demand combined with concerns about the cut in Russian production, amid recent Ukrainian attacks on refineries.
In Capital Economics' assessment, oil prices will come under pressure as support from supply cuts will be removed in the second half of the year. “We believe that OPEC+ members will begin to cautiously reduce production cuts from June, which will contribute to the price falling to US$75 per barrel by the end of 2024.”
Capital Economics also assesses that the risk of changes in the global energy flow as a result of the accident on the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore is “unlikely”. The consultancy indicates that the passage of oil through the Baltimore route is tiny, and there is capacity for trade to be diverted to larger nearby ports, including Virginia.
Amid concerns about Russia's supply, Brookings Institute economist and former president of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Robin Brooks, assessed today that the sanctions imposed by the G7 on Russian oil are not intended to strangle the country's supply, but rather guarantee the supply of the commodity on the global market.
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