New violations of the ceasefire on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan expose the stagnation of the peace negotiation process between these countries. On February 13, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces attacked southern Armenia, leaving four soldiers dead. The Armenian side accused Azerbaijan of continuing aggressive behavior and evading options to reach a peace agreement by all means.
Given the latest events, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, assures that Azerbaijan plans “military operations in some parts of the border” that can turn into “a full-scale war against the Republic of Armenia.”
Although the representatives of the border demarcation commissions of each country meet regularly to advance the delimitation of the line of contact, Armenian authorities insist that Azerbaijan does not respect the consensus previously adopted with the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, which defines the borders of the countries after their independence from the Soviet Union. For Armenia, this declaration should be the political basis and process of border delimitation.
In this context, the Armenian Government seems to have put an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, although opposition sectors continue to blame the Pashinian Administration for the recent crises and refuse to turn the page.
The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, internationally recognized as part of the territory of Azerbaijan, was populated by a majority of ethnic Armenians. But, a military operation, in September 2023, led to the capitulation of the authorities of that self-proclaimed republic, which officially disappeared on January 1, in the midst of a humanitarian crisis as the nearly 120,000 ethnic Armenians in the region had to flee to Armenian territory.
Now, as the Armenian authorities continue to assist the forcibly displaced people of Nagorno Karabakh, who have found refuge in Armenia, they demand the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from 215 km2 of sovereign Armenian territory and the occupation of 31 villages. Nikol Pashinian has stated that he has legitimate goals in the field of defense of his country and recognizes the territorial integrity of all neighboring countries.
Within the framework of the Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. As a result of the meeting, the German mediator expressed that his country will make efforts to bring the parties closer to a peace agreement.
Read alsoFour dead after Azerbaijan's aggression on the border with Armenia
The turn to the West
In this scenario, the Armenian Government accelerates the deepening of ties with its Western partners, fundamentally in the area of national security. Different decisions by those who lead the defense field in Armenia indicate an inclination towards NATO. Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan demanded that the General Staff appoint officers trained according to NATO standards to senior positions. In turn, the contacts of the Armenian military with Russian diplomats and military personnel were restricted.
The palpable distancing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Armenia has been a member since 1992, paved the way for a turn towards the West. The distance was marked by the refusal of the Armenian side to participate in meetings of heads of state and representatives of other levels of the CSTO, as well as by military training organized for the armies of member countries.
From the opposite line, in 2023, Armenia hosted the exercises Eagle Partner along with United States military units. Furthermore, recently the Ministry of Defense announced that the new uniforms of the Armenian Army will follow the standards of NATO countries.
Faced with rumors of abandonment of the CSTO, the Russian authorities have made their discontent explicit on different occasions. While the Armenian side justifies its distance by questioning Russia's actions as a strategic ally.
Read alsoArmenian Prime Minister begins to publicly distance himself from Russia
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a direct criticism of Nikol Pashinian, expressed his hope that “no temporary administration” would destroy the ancient ties between Russia and Armenia. Likewise, the Russian Foreign Minister assured that close cooperation with NATO would affect the sovereignty and security of Armenia, since its true objective is to strengthen its positions in the region and create a new focus of tension after the Balkans, the Middle East and Ukraine.
For their part, the Armenian authorities denied that the decision to leave this military alliance is on the Government's agenda, although they have simultaneously taken steps to deepen ties with NATO. Recently, NATO's Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Javier Colomina, was warmly received in Yerevan by high-level officials.
In this framework, the Government of Nikol Pashinian continues to tighten the Russian rope even more and has determined to ratify the Rome Statute. Since February, Armenia's membership in the International Criminal Court began to run, which means complying with its jurisdiction and the arrest warrant issued against the president of Russia, Vladimir Putinaccused of war crimes in Ukraine.
Despite the fact that the press secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, warned that this decision by Armenia would be “very hostile”, the Armenian National Assembly moved forward with this measure, seeing a possibility to try the war crimes committed by the Azerbaijani leadership over sovereign Armenian territory as of May 12, 2021.
Towards a new Constitution
On the other side, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, who won a fifth term in office on February 7, with 92.05% of the votes, continues to intervene in the domestic affairs of the neighboring country.
On February 1, the Azerbaijani president demanded that Armenia change its National Constitution under the threat of not signing a peace treaty. His demands are for Armenia to abandon the Declaration of Independence which “contains direct calls for the unification of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan with Armenia and the violation of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.”
For his part, the Armenian prime minister assured that his intention to implement a new Magna Carta does not revolve around the claims of the Azerbaijani president, but rather to make the country “more competitive and viable.”
In January, the prime minister questioned Armenia's territory falling within sovereign, internationally recognized borders. In this regard, Pashinian's message was: “I express this opinion so that it can be the subject of a broader debate: the Armenian Republic needs a new Constitution, not constitutional amendments.” However, the president expressed his satisfaction with the current governance model. parliamentary – adopted through a referendum in 2015, which put an end to the semi-presidential system.
Opposition deputies of the National Assembly raised their disagreement with the official initiative and They accused the prime minister of giving in to the demands of Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
These parliamentarians issued a statement insisting that Nikol Pashinian intends to prepare the ground to meet another of the “incessant Turkish-Azerbaijani demands.” According to their message, these countries had previously urged the removal of Armenia's fundamental documents containing provisions on supporting the right of self-determination of the people of Nagorno Karabakh and seeking international recognition of the Armenian genocide, being “a new attack on one of the pillars of the Third Republic of Armenia.”
Regarding the creation of a new Constitution, the Armenian Prime Minister expressed his desire to begin the “fourth Republic of Armenia”, leaving behind a third that originated from its independence from the Soviet bloc.
#deal #sight #difficult #path #peace #South #Caucasus